The British Pound's recent performance against the US Dollar highlights a significant shift in market dynamics, marked by pronounced bearish trends. Following a peak at 1.34337 on September 26, the GBPUSD pair has faced sustained downward pressure, breaking key technical levels and forming a "Death Cross" pattern, which underscores a potential continuation of the decline. Traders now turn their attention to critical support and resistance levels, alongside broader market fundamentals, to gauge the currency pair's next direction.
Overview
The British Pound's recent performance against the US Dollar highlights a significant shift in market dynamics, marked by pronounced bearish trends. Following a peak at 1.34337 on September 26, the GBPUSD pair has faced sustained downward pressure, breaking key technical levels and forming a "Death Cross" pattern, which underscores a potential continuation of the decline. Traders now turn their attention to critical support and resistance levels, alongside broader market fundamentals, to gauge the currency pair's next direction.
Key Economic Events
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) - UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Technical Analysis
After peaking at 1.34337 on September 26, the British Pound (GBP) experienced a significant decline against the US Dollar (USD), driven by key technical signals. The GBPUSD pair dropped below both the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), triggering a "Death Cross" pattern—a double crossover reversal—that amplified bearish momentum.
Additional confirmation of the downward trend comes from the Momentum Oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI). The Momentum Oscillator has fallen below the 100 mark, while the RSI has moved below 50, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment.
Should the downward pressure persist, the next target for traders may be 1.26346. On the other hand, a shift in market sentiment toward bullishness could push the pair toward a resistance level of 1.28107.
Potential Upside Targets
If buyers take control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
1.27226: The first level of resistance is determined at 1.27226, which reflects the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
1.28107: The second resistance level is observed at 1.28107, which aligns with the swing high from December 6.
1.29168: The third price target is established at 1.29168, which corresponds to the weekly resistance, R2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.30698: An additional price objective is projected at 1.30698, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from the high point, 1.34337, to the low point, 1.24866.
Potential Downside Targets
If sellers maintain control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
1.26346: The initial support level is estimated at 1.26346, representing the weekly support, S1, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.24866: The second support level is determined at 1.24866, aligning with the swing low from November 22.
1.23023: The third downside target is observed at 1.23023, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 1.26165, to the swing high, 1.28107.
1.19881: An additional downside target is noted at 1.19881, reflecting the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 1.26165, to the swing high, 1.28107.
Fundamentals
In October 2024, the UK's real GDP declined by 0.1%, continuing the slight downward trend observed in September. However, over the three months leading up to October, GDP showed a modest growth of 0.1%, supported by gains in the services and construction sectors, which helped offset a contraction in production.
The services sector remained flat in October but experienced a small increase of 0.1% over the three-month period. Growth was driven by professional, scientific, and technical activities, as well as education, while administrative and support services experienced a notable decline. The production sector saw a 0.6% drop in output during October, led by contractions in manufacturing, mining, and quarrying, resulting in a 0.3% decline over the three months. In construction, output fell by 0.4% in October due to a decrease in repair and maintenance work, although the sector grew by 0.4% over the quarter, largely driven by infrastructure projects.
These figures reflect a mixed economic landscape, with certain industries showing resilience while broader declines in production and construction repair work weighed on overall growth.
Conclusion
The British Pound's decline against the US Dollar reflects a bearish market environment, with technical indicators such as the "Death Cross," RSI below the neutral 50 level, and weakened Momentum Oscillator signaling continued downward pressure. Key support and resistance levels offer important benchmarks for traders to monitor. Further bearish momentum could push prices toward 1.26346, while a shift in sentiment could see the pair testing resistance at 1.28107 and higher. As the technical landscape unfolds, traders should remain vigilant and responsive to evolving market dynamics.