Aussie Rallies Amid Impressive Jobs Data

Andreas Thalassinos
Andreas Thalassinos

21.3.2024

The Australian Dollar experienced a significant surge in value following the release of the February Labour Force report, which surpassed expectations.  The impressive employment data has prompted a positive response from investors, resulting in a rally for the Australian Dollar.  Traders are expected to closely monitor the AUDUSD currency pair in light of the forthcoming release of significant economic data that could impact currency valuations.

Overview

The Australian Dollar experienced a significant surge in value following the release of the February Labour Force report, which surpassed expectations.  The impressive employment data has prompted a positive response from investors, resulting in a rally for the Australian Dollar.  Traders are expected to closely monitor the AUDUSD currency pair in light of the forthcoming release of significant economic data that could impact currency valuations.

Upcoming Economic Events

Thursday 08:15 am (GMT): French Flash PMI (EUR)
Thursday 08:30 am (GMT): SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 09:30 am (GMT): Flash PMI (GBP)
Thursday 12:00 pm (GMT):  Official Bank Rate (GBP)
Thursday 12:30 pm (GMT):  Unemployment Claims (USD)
Thursday 01:45 pm (GMT): Flash PMI (USD)
Friday  07:00 am (GMT): Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Fundamentals

Employment data released early today shows a sharp rebound in February, leading to a surge in the Australian dollar.  The numbers also reveal that the unemployment rate has plummeted far below what was expected.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics published its Labour Force report for February, which showed an increase in total employment by 116,500, exceeding the market forecast of 39,700.  Additionally, the unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people decreased by 52,000 to 548,300.  Moreover, the Participation Rate ticked higher by 0.1 percentage points to 66.7%.  

Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD pair experienced a downtrend since December 28, marked by a succession of consecutive lower peaks and troughs until it reached its low price of 0.64425.  Subsequently, on March 3, a failure swing reversal pattern to the upside formed and broke through the key resistance level of 0.65948, paving the way for higher exchange rates.  A decisive breach above the resistance 0.66673 will prompt the AUDUSD exchange rate to reach higher price targets.  The upward scenario is also consistent with the 50-period Moving Average indicator and the Momentum oscillator.  In particular, prices remain above the Moving Average line while the Momentum oscillator hovers above the 100 baseline.

Upside Potential Targets

Should the bullish momentum continue to dominate the market, there are four potential upside targets that traders may consider:

0.66673: The first target stands at 0.66673, aligning with the peak established on March 8.
0.67156: The second price objective is estimated at 0.67156, representing the R3 resistance of the daily Pivot Points using the Standard methodology.
0.67682: An additional potential price objective could be identified at 0.67682, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci extension drawn from the peak at 0.66673 down to the trough at 0.65040.
0.68710: The fourth price objective is observed at the peak of 0.68710 marked on December 28.

Conclusion and Considerations

The current trend of AUDUSD has shown an upward trajectory owing to a series of favorable reports published recently.  Additionally, the decline of the US dollar index has had a positive impact on the Australian dollar.  Investors are eagerly anticipating the release of data on US Unemployment Claims and Flash PMI later today.  In order to navigate the highly volatile financial markets, traders must remain well-informed about economic events and geopolitical changes, enabling them to make informed trading decisions. 

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Andreas Thalassinos
Andreas Thalassinos

Andreas Thalassinos is a recognized authority in the financial markets and world renowned for his expertise in algorithmic trading. He is a Certified Technical Analyst and highly respected lecturer in the education of traders, investors, and financial markets professionals. Thalassinos has played a key role in the development of education within the industry, training tens of thousands of traders of all skill levels. Traders value his seminars and workshops for the rich content, his passionate, charismatic, and lively presentations.