This week’s market outlook is shaped by key economic events, including Australia’s CPI, U.S. Unemployment Claims, and crucial employment data from Canada and the U.S. On the technical front, BTCUSD has entered a bearish phase, with downside momentum intensifying after peaking in mid-December. Key resistance and support levels highlight potential price targets depending on market sentiment. Meanwhile, heightened volatility in the crypto market, driven by stronger U.S. economic data and rising Treasury yields, has increased liquidation risks. Traders will be closely watching upcoming macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, to gauge future market direction.
Overview
This week’s market outlook is shaped by key economic events, including Australia’s CPI, U.S. Unemployment Claims, and crucial employment data from Canada and the U.S. On the technical front, BTCUSD has entered a bearish phase, with downside momentum intensifying after peaking in mid-December. Key resistance and support levels highlight potential price targets depending on market sentiment. Meanwhile, heightened volatility in the crypto market, driven by stronger U.S. economic data and rising Treasury yields, has increased liquidation risks. Traders will be closely watching upcoming macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, to gauge future market direction.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) - Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 17:30 (GMT+2) - Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 17:30 (GMT+2) - USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Technical Analysis
Since December 17, BTCUSD has been on a steady decline after peaking at $108,280.20. The downturn was prompted by the formation of an Evening Star candlestick pattern, signaling waning buyer strength. Despite the sell-off, prices found support around the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near a swing low of $91,429.00. Shortly after, the cryptocurrency attempted a recovery, reaching a peak of $102,601.50 on January 7, only to reverse sharply with the formation of a Long Black Body candlestick, reflecting mounting selling pressure.
If the key support at $91,429.00 is decisively breached, BTCUSD could see increased downward momentum, potentially driving prices below $90,000.00, with the possibility of falling beneath the $70,000.00 level.
Momentum indicators continue to highlight bearish sentiment. The Momentum Oscillator remains below the neutral 100 level, indicating persistent downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, confirming heightened selling activity.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
102,601.50: The initial resistance is 102,601.50, which represents the swing high formed on January 7.
108,280.20: The second price target is identified at 108,280.20, corresponding to the all-time high recorded on December 17.
114,216.92: The third target is set at 114,216.92, corresponding with the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high of 98,869.48 to the swing low of 90,802.78.
128,687.54: An additional price target is estimated at 128,687.54, which corresponds to the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high of 98,869.48 to the swing low of 90,802.78.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
91,429.00: The first level of support is set at 91,429.00, which aligns with a swing low from December 30.
84,524.40: The second support level is identified at 84,524.40, reflecting the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the low point, 91,429.00, to the high point, 102,601.50.
73,589.90: The third support level is seen at 73,589.90, corresponding to a peak marked on October 29.
64,375.70: An additional downward target is observed at 64,375.70, corresponding to a daily high from October 7.
Fundamentals
Bitcoin fell to $95,146, breaking below the key $100,000 level as strong U.S. economic data stoked fears of delayed monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. The Labor Department’s report on rising job openings and accelerating services sector activity, along with surging Treasury yields (reaching 4.699%), signaled economic strength and increased expectations for higher interest rates. This led to a broader crypto market sell-off, erasing 7.2% of the market cap.
The sharp market decline triggered $555 million in liquidations of long positions, heightening volatility and potentially prompting reduced leverage among traders. Analysts note that macroeconomic indicators will continue to play a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment. Key upcoming events include Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on January 29, both of which could further influence market dynamics.
Conclusion
As key economic events unfold this week, markets are likely to experience heightened volatility driven by macroeconomic data and shifting sentiment. BTCUSD remains in a fragile position, with bearish momentum dominating and key support levels under threat. Traders should remain vigilant, as upcoming reports on employment and inflation, along with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this month, will be pivotal in shaping future market trends. The interplay between technical signals and fundamental developments will be critical in determining whether cryptocurrencies can stabilize or face further downside risks.