This week's key economic events include the US presidential election, along with crucial central bank decisions from Australia, the UK, and the US, influencing AUD, GBP, and USD. Employment data released from the US and Canada will also provide insights into labor market conditions.
Crude oil remains in a sideways market, trading between $65.52 and $77.91, with indicators like the 50-period EMA, Momentum, and RSI suggesting a potential upward trend. Resistance levels to watch are $72.22, $73.58, $75.63, and $77.91, while support lies at $68.94, $66.53, $65.52, and $64.29.
Fundamentally, oil prices are steady due to OPEC+ delaying production increases and continuing cuts through year-end amid weak demand and oversupply concerns. Geopolitical tensions and US election uncertainty add volatility, though substantial price increases are unlikely without significant supply disruptions.
Overview
This week's key economic events include the US presidential election, along with crucial central bank decisions from Australia, the UK, and the US, influencing AUD, GBP, and USD. Employment data released from the US and Canada will also provide insights into labor market conditions.
Crude oil remains in a sideways market, trading between $65.52 and $77.91, with indicators like the 50-period EMA, Momentum, and RSI suggesting a potential upward trend. Resistance levels to watch are $72.22, $73.58, $75.63, and $77.91, while support lies at $68.94, $66.53, $65.52, and $64.29.
Fundamentally, oil prices are steady due to OPEC+ delaying production increases and continuing cuts through year-end amid weak demand and oversupply concerns. Geopolitical tensions and US election uncertainty add volatility, though substantial price increases are unlikely without significant supply disruptions.
Key Economic Events
Tuesday All Day - USA: Presidential Election (USD)
Tuesday 05:30 am (GMT+2) - Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+2) - USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Tuesday 23:45 (GMT+2) - New Zealand: Employment Change q/q (NZD)
Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) - UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Thursday 21:00 (GMT+2) - USA: Federal Funds Rate (USA)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) - Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Technical Analysis
Crude oil prices are currently caught in a sideways market, fluctuating between 65.520 and 77.913, with bullish signals from various indicators and oscillators. Although "black gold" managed to bounce off its lows and fill the bearish gap formed on October 27, it remains in a trendless environment. A decisive break above the key resistance level at 72.224 could lead to further price appreciation.
Additionally, prices are above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating an upward momentum. Furthermore, the Momentum oscillator shows values above the 100 baseline, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, suggesting upward momentum in the near term.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
72.224: The initial resistance is 72.224, which aligns with the swing high reached on October 24.
73.583: The second price target is identified at 75.583, corresponding to the weekly resistance, R2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
75.629: The third target is established at 75.629, aligning with a swing high marked October 10.
77.913: An additional price target is estimated at 77.913, corresponding to the daily high reached on October 7.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
68.935: The first level of support is identified at 68.935, representing the weekly Pivot Point, P.P.PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
66.525: The second support level is 66.525, reflecting a trough formed on October 29.
65.523: The third support level is identified at 65.523, corresponding to a daily low marked on September 10.
64.287: An additional downward target is observed at 64.287, corresponding to the weekly support, S2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Fundamentals
Oil prices rose after OPEC+ delayed a planned production increase, signaling caution as concerns grow over weak global demand and declining prices. Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ extended voluntary production cuts through the year's end, postponing additional output until 2025. Traders worry about a potential supply surplus amid slowing demand, especially in major importing countries. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the U.S.US election contribute to ongoing market volatility.
Analysts expect Brent crude to trade within a set price range, as weak fundamentals currently limit upward movement. Factors such as an oversupply outlook for next year, low demand from major importers, and stable production levels contribute to this stability. While geopolitical tensions add uncertainty, only substantial disruptions to oil infrastructure are likely to push prices higher.
Conclusion
This week's economic events are likely to influence key currencies and commodities, with the US presidential election, central bank rate decisions, and labor data in focus. Crude oil prices remain steady, bolstered by OPEC+ production cuts amid demand concerns. While technical indicators hint at potential upward movement in oil, any significant price shifts may be limited by global supply outlooks and demand stability. Geopolitical tensions and US election outcomes will likely add volatility, yet substantial disruptions are needed to push oil prices beyond current levels.