Since August 8, EURGBP has been in a sustained downtrend, following a rebound from 0.86247 and the formation of a failure swing pattern. The inability of the price to surpass the 0.85926 peak, coupled with a subsequent break below the key support level of 0.85301, has confirmed bearish momentum. The widening of the Bollinger Bands and price action closing below the Lower Band signals the likelihood of continued downside pressure.
Overview
Since August 8, EURGBP has been in a sustained downtrend, following a rebound from 0.86247 and the formation of a failure swing pattern. The inability of the price to surpass the 0.85926 peak, coupled with a subsequent break below the key support level of 0.85301, has confirmed bearish momentum. The widening of the Bollinger Bands and price action closing below the Lower Band signals the likelihood of continued downside pressure.
Key Economic Events
Tuesday 03:30 am (GMT+3) - Japan: Flash Manufacturing PMI (JPY)
Tuesday 07:30 am (GMT+3) - Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) - USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)
Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) - Australia: CPI y/y (AU )
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) - Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Technical Analysis
Since August 8, EURGBP has been trending downward, following a rebound from 0.86247. The development of a bearish reversal pattern, identified as a failure swing, has reinforced the downward trajectory. Notably, the peak at 0.85926 failed to exceed the prior high, and the subsequent break below the trough at 0.85301 confirmed the onset of a downtrend.
Additionally, the widening of the Bollinger Bands and price action closing beneath the Lower Band signals a likely continuation of the bearish movement. Technical indicators further support the bearish outlook: EURGBP is trading below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the Momentum oscillator is below the 100 baseline, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recording values under the 50 level. Together, these factors indicate sustained bearish pressure on the currency pair.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.83999: The initial resistance is 0.83999, which aligns with the swing low from August 30 and the weekly Pivot Point.
0.84632: The second price target is identified at 0.84632, corresponding to the swing high marked on September 11.
0.84988: The third target is established at 0.84988, aligning with a peak formed on July 1.
0.85926: An additional price target is estimated at 0.85926, corresponding to the trough established on August 14.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.83272: The first level of support is seen at 0.83272, representing the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 0.85301 to the swing high of 0.85926.
0.82970 The second support level is identified at 0.82970, representing the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 0.83999 to the swing high of 0.84632.
0.82725: The third support level is positioned at 0.82725, aligning with the weekly support (S3) estimated using the standard Pivot Points method.
0.82487: An additional downward target is observed at 0.82487, reflecting a monthly low.
Fundamentals
In September, eurozone business activity declined for the first time in seven months, driven by sharp falls in new orders and a deepening manufacturing downturn. Manufacturing output saw its fastest decline in 2024, while services growth was minimal. Confidence hit a 10-month low, leading to further job cuts. Input cost and output price inflation slowed, with the eurozone edging toward stagnation. France and Germany both recorded contractions in activity, while the rest of the eurozone saw modest expansion.
On the other hand, UK private sector activity continued to rise in September, marking 11 months of growth, though the pace slowed compared to August. The Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index dipped to 52.9, with both manufacturing and services experiencing slower growth. Input cost inflation increased, driven by wage and shipping costs, but prices charged saw the slowest rise since February 2021. Business confidence remained positive, though concerns about fiscal policy ahead of the Autumn Budget persisted.
Conclusion
EURGBP remains under significant bearish pressure, reinforced by technical indicators and a failure swing pattern that has confirmed the downtrend since early August. With key resistance and support levels outlined, the outlook continues to favor sellers unless market conditions shift. Traders will be closely monitoring upcoming economic events, including critical data releases from Japan, Australia, the US, and Europe, for potential catalysts that could influence future price movements.