Silver continues to capture investor attention as a mix of technical strength and fundamental tailwinds drive its outperformance. A maturing uptrend, confirmed by bullish chart patterns and momentum indicators, suggests continued interest—though signs of near-term exhaustion are beginning to emerge.
On the macro front, rising geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainty have renewed safe-haven demand across precious metals. While gold's upside remains capped by a stronger US dollar and tempered Fed rate cut expectations, silver benefits from additional factors. These include possible central bank accumulation—led by Russia's reported entry into the silver market—and strong industrial demand, especially in solar and technology sectors.
Key economic data this week from the UK, US, and Australia may add volatility to the mix. Traders should remain alert as silver approaches critical resistance levels, while also watching for signals of a potential pullback amid broader market shifts.
Overview
Silver continues to capture investor attention as a mix of technical strength and fundamental tailwinds drive its outperformance. A maturing uptrend, confirmed by bullish chart patterns and momentum indicators, suggests continued interest—though signs of near-term exhaustion are beginning to emerge.
On the macro front, rising geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainty have renewed safe-haven demand across precious metals. While gold's upside remains capped by a stronger US dollar and tempered Fed rate cut expectations, silver benefits from additional factors. These include possible central bank accumulation—led by Russia's reported entry into the silver market—and strong industrial demand, especially in solar and technology sectors.
Key economic data this week from the UK, US, and Australia may add volatility to the mix. Traders should remain alert as silver approaches critical resistance levels, while also watching for signals of a potential pullback amid broader market shifts.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 04:30 am (GMT3) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Technical Analysis
Silver has delivered a robust recovery since establishing a low of 28.322 on April 6, rallying over 38% and carving out a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows—hallmarks of a mature uptrend. The initial bullish reversal was marked by a classic failure swing pattern, which triggered a decisive break above the 33.683 level and marked a shift in sentiment.
This momentum gained further traction as price action moved above the 50-period EMA, indicating a broadening bullish bias and increased market participation. The technical picture was strengthened by the emergence of a "Golden Cross," where the 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA—often seen as a medium-term confirmation of trend strength.
Momentum indicators continue to reflect underlying demand. The Momentum Oscillator has held above the 100 threshold, while the RSI has remained anchored above the 50 level, confirming steady bullish pressure. That said, signs of fatigue are beginning to emerge. A negative divergence between the Momentum Oscillator and price, coupled with the appearance of a Shooting Star candlestick near the 39.120 resistance zone, suggests that upward momentum may be losing steam.
While a sustained breakout above 39.120 could reassert the bullish trend and open the path toward higher targets, the risk of a short-term consolidation or corrective pullback cannot be ruled out. Traders should monitor these developments closely for confirmation before positioning further.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
39.120: The initial resistance is 39.120, which represents the daily high marked on July 14.
40.596: The second price target is identified at 40.596, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 37.307 to 35.274.
41.614: The third target is established at 41.614, aligning with the weekly resistance, R3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
43.886: An additional price target is estimated at 43.886, which corresponds to the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 37.307 to 35.274.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
37.307: The first level of support is identified at 37.307, representing the daily high reached on June 18.
35.274: The second support level is 35.274, reflecting the daily low from June 24.
34.471: The third support level is observed at 34.471, corresponding to the weekly support, S3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
32.402: An additional support level is identified at 32.402, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from the low point, 28.322, to the high point, 39.120.
Fundamentals
Precious metals are gaining momentum as safe-haven demand rises amid growing tariff-related uncertainty. President Trump has announced new tariffs on 25 countries, including Canada, Mexico, and the EU, effective August 1. However, gains in gold and silver are limited by a stronger dollar, which is near a three-week high ahead of key U.S. producer price data.
Silver's recent rally to a 14-year high may be linked to quiet buying by the Russian central bank, which last year announced plans to add silver to its State Reserve Fund. Since then, silver has outperformed gold, rising over 30 percent in 2025.
The move could signal a shift among BRIC nations toward using silver as an alternative to gold in efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. Rising industrial demand, and a relatively low gold-to-silver ratio have further supported silver's appeal. While data is limited, speculation about central bank accumulation is growing.
Conclusion
In conclusion, silver's strong technical performance and supportive fundamentals position it as a standout in the precious metals space. While the uptrend remains intact, signs of short-term fatigue warrant caution. With heightened geopolitical tensions, upcoming economic data, and shifting central bank behavior all in play, traders should remain vigilant. A sustained break above key resistance could signal further upside, but the potential for consolidation remains a near-term risk.