As markets navigate heightened volatility sparked by President Trump's sweeping tariff announcement, investor attention now turns to a series of high-impact economic releases due in the coming sessions. With concerns over a potential trade war pressuring risk assets, upcoming data—ranging from U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls to ISM Services PMI and Canadian employment figures—could significantly influence sentiment and market direction.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains under technical strain, trading in a well-defined downtrend with momentum indicators reinforcing bearish conditions. However, with a potential bullish divergence emerging, traders are closely watching for signs of a corrective rebound as macro and policy headwinds continue to drive volatility.
Overview
As markets navigate heightened volatility sparked by President Trump's sweeping tariff announcement, investor attention now turns to a series of high-impact economic releases due in the coming sessions. With concerns over a potential trade war pressuring risk assets, upcoming data—ranging from U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls to ISM Services PMI and Canadian employment figures—could significantly influence sentiment and market direction.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains under technical strain, trading in a well-defined downtrend with momentum indicators reinforcing bearish conditions. However, with a potential bullish divergence emerging, traders are closely watching for signs of a corrective rebound as macro and policy headwinds continue to drive volatility.
Key Economic Events
Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) - Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) - USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
Technical Analysis
Since establishing a cycle high at 6143.58 on February 19, the S&P 500 Index has entered a defined downtrend, declining over 11% from peak to trough. The sustained sequence of lower highs and lower lows reflects a structurally bearish trend consistent with prolonged downside momentum.
This bearish outlook has been further reinforced by a technical "Death Cross" formation, where the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed below the 50-period EMA—a signal often associated with accelerating negative sentiment.
Momentum dynamics continue to favor the bears. The Momentum Oscillator has broken below the 100 threshold, indicating rising selling pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 mark, underscoring persistent downside bias.
Nonetheless, a developing positive divergence between price action and the Momentum Oscillator suggests that downside momentum may be losing steam, introducing the possibility of a short-term corrective rebound. Traders should monitor this divergence closely for signs of a tactical shift in sentiment.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
5640.11: The initial resistance is 5640.11, which represents the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
5695.90: The second price target is identified at 5695.90, corresponding to the high point from April 2.
5788.00: The third target is established at 5788.00, aligning with the peak marked March 26.
5901.77: An additional price target is estimated at 5901.77, corresponding to the trough marked February 3.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
5349.70: The first level of support is determined at 5349.70, representing the low point from April 2.
5360.49: The second support level is identified at 5360.49, reflecting the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the low point, 5488.60, to the high point, 5695.90
5268.87: The third support level is seen at 5268.87, corresponding to the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
5153.19: An additional downward target is observed at 5153.19, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the low point, 5488.60, to the high point, 5695.90
Fundamentals
U.S. stock futures plunged on April 2 after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs starting at 10%, with significantly higher rates for key trade partners like China (54%), Vietnam (46%), and India (26%). Dow futures fell over 1,000 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 2.88% and 3.21%, respectively.
Markets were rattled by the unexpectedly aggressive and uneven tariff structure, which investors fear could trigger a global trade war, stoke inflation, and weigh on earnings. Multinational stocks were hit hard—Apple and Nike fell around 7%, while import-heavy retailers like Five Below and Dollar Tree plunged over 10%. Analysts warn the S&P 500 may re-enter correction territory as volatility persists and global markets respond to the escalating trade tensions.
Conclusion
With markets under pressure from both geopolitical shocks and technical weakness, the near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. President Trump's aggressive tariff announcement has injected renewed volatility into global equities, raising the specter of a trade war and further challenging investor sentiment. As the S&P 500 continues to trend lower—supported by bearish momentum and a confirmed "Death Cross"—attention now shifts to this week's key economic data for potential catalysts. While a short-term rebound remains possible given the emerging bullish divergence in momentum, traders should approach with caution as macro risks and policy unpredictability continue to dominate market direction.