As global markets remain on edge amid rising trade tensions and diverging central bank policies, traders are turning their attention to key economic data releases this week, including interest rate decisions from New Zealand, U.S. jobless claims, and employment figures from Canada and the UK. Against this backdrop, the Australian dollar has shown notable strength, with AUDUSD extending its bullish recovery since early April. With the Reserve Bank of Australia holding rates steady and inflation gradually easing, the pair's upward momentum is being closely watched for signs of continuation—or reversal—amid shifting global fundamentals.
Overview
As global markets remain on edge amid rising trade tensions and diverging central bank policies, traders are turning their attention to key economic data releases this week, including interest rate decisions from New Zealand, U.S. jobless claims, and employment figures from Canada and the UK. Against this backdrop, the Australian dollar has shown notable strength, with AUD/USD extending its bullish recovery since early April. With the Reserve Bank of Australia holding rates steady and inflation gradually easing, the pair's upward momentum is being closely watched for signs of continuation—or reversal—amid shifting global fundamentals.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 05:00 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Technical Analysis
Since bottoming out at 0.59134 on April 9, AUDUSD has staged an impressive recovery, gaining over 11% from low to high and signaling a clear bullish reversal. This move has been technically reinforced by a double EMA crossover, with the pair holding comfortably above both the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages — a key confirmation of trend strength.
Momentum indicators continue to support the bullish narrative. The Momentum Oscillator remains well above the 100 level, highlighting persistent buying interest, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades above the 50 mark, pointing to positive momentum and the potential for further upside in the near term.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.65892: The initial resistance is 0.65892, representing the daily high reached on July 1.
0.66206: The second price target is identified at 0.66206, corresponding to the weekly resistance, R2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.66540: The third target is established at 0.66540, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.65892 to 0.64844.
0.69283: An additional price target is estimated at 0.69283, which corresponds to the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.65892 to 0.64844.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.64844: The first level of support is identified at 0.64844, representing the low point reached on July 7.
0.64499 The second support level is identified at 0.64499, corresponding to the weekly support, S2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.63715: The third support level is 0.63715, reflecting the daily low marked on June 23.
0.61716: An additional downward target is observed at 0.61716, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from the low point, 0.59134, to the high point, 0.65892.
Fundamentals
The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates unchanged at 3.85% as inflation continues to ease. While price growth is nearing the target range, recent data showed slightly stronger-than-expected figures, prompting the RBA to wait for more confirmation before making further moves. The global outlook remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and while household incomes are improving, some businesses still struggle with weak demand. The job market is tight, but productivity remains low and labour costs are high. The RBA says it will stay cautious and closely monitor economic data to ensure inflation stays on track and employment remains strong.
Conclusion
With AUDUSD showing strong technical momentum and supportive fundamentals, the pair remains well-positioned heading into a week of high-impact economic events. However, global uncertainties—from trade tensions to diverging monetary policies—continue to pose risks to the outlook. Traders should stay alert to upcoming data releases, as these could provide key catalysts for the next move. Whether the bullish trend extends or faces a pullback will likely depend on how markets interpret the evolving macroeconomic landscape.