With several key US and Swiss economic releases scheduled in the coming sessions, markets are positioned for a potential uptick in volatility, particularly for USD- and CHF-related pairs. For AUDUSD, this week's price action unfolds against a backdrop of mixed economic signals from both Australia and the US, as well as a clearly defined technical uptrend in play since early April. While the Australian dollar has recently pulled back on softer domestic data, its medium-term outlook remains supported by strong bullish structures. Traders should stay alert to economic headlines and technical signals, as both could shape the pair's next directional move.
Overview
With several key US and Swiss economic releases scheduled in the coming sessions, markets are positioned for a potential uptick in volatility, particularly for USD- and CHF-related pairs. For AUDUSD, this week's price action unfolds against a backdrop of mixed economic signals from both Australia and the US, as well as a clearly defined technical uptrend in play since early April. While the Australian dollar has recently pulled back on softer domestic data, its medium-term outlook remains supported by strong bullish structures. Traders should stay alert to economic headlines and technical signals, as both could shape the pair's next directional move.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+3) - USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) - Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) - USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Technical Analysis
Since establishing a low at 0.59134 on April 9, AUDUSD has maintained a steady upward trajectory, underpinned by bullish price structures and confirmation from momentum-based indicators. The rally was triggered by a classic non-failure swing pattern, where a lower trough was followed by a breakout above the prior swing high at 0.61258—effectively shifting the technical bias to the upside.
Further strengthening the bullish case, a "Golden Cross" emerged, with the 20-period EMA crossing above the 50-period EMA—a commonly recognized signal of medium-term upward momentum.
Momentum studies remain supportive of continued gains. The Momentum Oscillator is positioned firmly above the 100 threshold, while the RSI continues to trend above 50, reinforcing the underlying strength in price action.
However, emerging negative divergence between momentum and price warrants some caution. While the broader trend remains constructive, this divergence could signal waning momentum and raise the probability of a near-term pullback or consolidation phase. Traders may consider monitoring key support levels for potential re-entry or confirmation of trend continuation.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.66621: The initial resistance is seen at 0.66621, which reflects the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.65511 to 0.63715.
0.67952: The second price target is identified at 0.67952, which corresponds to the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.68417: The third target is established at 0.68417, mirroring the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.65511 to 0.63715.
0.71323: An additional price target is estimated at 0.71323, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.65511 to 0.63715.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.65511: The first level of support is set at 0.65511, representing the swing high from June 16.
0.64877: The second support level is identified at 0.64877, reflecting the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
0.63715: The third support level is estimated at 0.63715, representing the swing low marked on June 23.
0.62963: An additional downward target is observed at 0.62963, corresponding to the weekly support, S2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Fundamentals
Australia's manufacturing sector continues to shrink, with the latest Ai Group Index showing a deeper contraction due to weak sales caused by bad weather, rising costs, and trade uncertainty. Although there's been a slight improvement since early 2024, the industry remains under pressure.
Retail sales in May rose by just 0.2%, falling short of expectations, while building permits also disappointed. These signs point to a slowing economy.
Meanwhile, the ASX 200 gained slightly thanks to mining and real estate stocks, but the Australian dollar fell as weaker data weighed on investor confidence.
On the other hand, US manufacturing continued to shrink in June, marking the fourth straight month of contraction, according to the latest ISM report. The Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49%, but remained below the 50% threshold that signals growth. While production and inventories showed improvement, new orders and employment weakened further.
The overall picture remains mixed: some industries—like petroleum, electronics, and food—grew, while others—such as chemicals and metals—continued to decline. Although the pace of contraction has slowed, caution still dominates, especially around hiring and demand.
Conclusion
With AUDUSD trending higher on strong technical foundations, the pair remains in bullish territory despite recent economic headwinds. Upcoming US and Swiss data releases could inject fresh volatility and serve as key catalysts for price action. While technical indicators point to further upside potential, signs of weakening momentum suggest traders should remain vigilant for possible short-term corrections. Staying flexible and responsive to both economic developments and chart signals will be essential for navigating the next phase of market movement.