Bitcoin has faced a sharp pullback from its all-time high, with technical indicators signaling a shift toward bearish momentum. A "Death Cross" double-crossover and weakening momentum indicators suggest further downside risks unless key support levels hold. Meanwhile, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing record outflows, adding pressure to the market. However, some analysts see this as a temporary retreat rather than a full reversal, with institutional demand for crypto assets continuing to grow. Traders should remain vigilant as economic data and market sentiment evolve.
Overview
Bitcoin has faced a sharp pullback from its all-time high, with technical indicators signaling a shift toward bearish momentum. A "Death Cross" double-crossover and weakening momentum indicators suggest further downside risks unless key support levels hold. Meanwhile, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing record outflows, adding pressure to the market. However, some analysts see this as a temporary retreat rather than a full reversal, with institutional demand for crypto assets continuing to grow. Traders should remain vigilant as economic data and market sentiment evolve.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) - Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) - USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday All Day - Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) - Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) - USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Saturday 03:30 am (GMT+2) - China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Technical Analysis
After reaching an all-time high of $109,899, Bitcoin has significantly retreated, losing more than 19% of its value. The formation of a Shooting Star candlestick indicated a diminishing bullish presence, while a subsequent failure swing pattern confirmed a structural shift to the downside. The peak at $106,335.50 fell short of the previous peak, and the price action decisively broke below the prior trough at $97,619.30, reinforcing bearish momentum.
From a technical perspective, the BTCUSD has shown further weakness by dropping below both the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), forming a "Death Cross"—a classic bearish reversal pattern that suggests a sustained move lower.
Momentum indicators further support this outlook. The Momentum Oscillator has fallen below the 100 threshold, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, both signaling continued downside pressure. Collectively, these factors reinforce a broader bearish bias, indicating the potential for further declines if the price action stays below key support levels.
Potential Upside Targets
If buyers take control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
91,079.00: The first level of resistance is determined at $91,079.00, which reflects the daily low marked February 3.
96,338.80: The second resistance level is observed at $96,338.80, which aligns with the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
100,031.30: The third price objective is projected at $100,031.30, representing the swing high from February 7.
102,445.50: An additional price objective is projected at $102,445.50, representing the weekly resistance, R2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Potential Downside Targets
If sellers maintain control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
85,953.15: The initial support level is estimated at $85,943.15, representing the daily low marked February 25.
83,516.49: The second support level is determined at $83,516.49, aligning with the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 97,619.30 to 106,335.50.
76,313,14: The thitrd support level is established at $76,313,14, reflecting the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 91,079.00 to 100,031.30.
69,413.68: An additional downside target is noted at $69,413.68, representing the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 97,619.30 to 106,335.50.
Fundamentals
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record daily outflow of $938 million on Feb. 25, marking six consecutive days of losses as Bitcoin struggles to maintain momentum. Total outflows for February have surpassed $2.4 billion, with only a few days of net inflows. The largest redemptions came from major funds, reflecting growing investor uncertainty. Analysts suggest much of the activity is driven by hedge funds engaging in arbitrage rather than long-term holdings. Some predict further Bitcoin declines as ETF liquidations continue.
According to Binance’s CEO, the recent crypto market downturn is a temporary retreat, not a reversal, emphasizing the sector’s resilience to macroeconomic turbulence. The drop followed the U.S. confirming tariffs on Canada and Mexico, alongside the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts. Sentiment indicators, including the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, signal heightened fear, but strong demand for crypto ETFs and new filings suggest growing institutional interest. Despite short-term volatility, market fundamentals remain strong, pointing to a potential rebound.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's recent decline, reinforced by bearish technical signals and record ETF outflows, has put downward pressure on the market. However, analysts remain divided on whether this marks a deeper correction or a temporary pullback. While key economic events and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to shape sentiment, institutional demand for crypto remains a strong underlying factor. Traders should closely monitor support and resistance levels, along with economic data releases, to assess potential market direction in the coming days.