This week's economic calendar is packed with high-impact data releases and central bank decisions that could influence market sentiment across currencies and commodities. Key events include interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Japan, as well as inflation figures from the UK and retail sales data from the US. Against this backdrop, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added a fresh layer of volatility to crude oil markets, prompting a technical and fundamental reassessment of price dynamics heading into the second half of June.
Overview
This week's economic calendar is packed with high-impact data releases and central bank decisions that could influence market sentiment across currencies and commodities. Key events include interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Japan, as well as inflation figures from the UK and retail sales data from the US. Against this backdrop, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added a fresh layer of volatility to crude oil markets, prompting a technical and fundamental reassessment of price dynamics heading into the second half of June.
Key Economic Events
Tuesday Tentative - Japan: Policy Rate (JPY)
Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) - UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Wednesday 21:00 (GMT+3) - USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)
Thursday 01:45 am (GMT+3) - New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)
Thursday 04:30 am (GMT+3) - Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) - Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 14:00 (GMT+3) - UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) - UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil has mounted a measured recovery off its 2025 low of $55.18 per barrel, supported in part by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—particularly recent strikes on key energy infrastructure—which have reignited concerns over potential supply disruptions through strategic points like the Strait of Hormuz.
Technically, the rebound gained traction following a failure swing reversal, where the higher low at $55.549 held above its predecessor and was followed by a break above the interim peak at $65.205, signaling a shift in momentum. This move was further reinforced by a bullish "Golden Cross," as the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 50-period EMA, adding to the underlying buying pressure.
While prices are currently capped below the recent daily high of $77.632, the uptrend remains structurally intact. Momentum indicators continue to support the bullish case—with the Momentum Oscillator holding firm above the 100 baseline, reflecting sustained upward force, and the RSI climbing well above its neutral 50 level into overbought territory, underscoring persistent buying conviction.
Potential Upside Targets
If buyers maintain control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
77.632: The first level of resistance is determined at 77.632, which reflects the daily high marked on June 13.
80.828: The second resistance level is observed at 80.828, which aligns with the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 65.205 to 55.549.
85.029: The third price objective is projected at 85.029, representing the weekly resistance, R2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
96.452: An additional price objective is projected at 96.452, representing the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 65.205 to 55.549.
Potential Downside Targets
If sellers take control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
72.377: The initial support level is estimated at 72.377, representing the peak formed on April 2.
69.056: The second support level is determined at 69.056, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from 55.181 to 77.632.
65.205: The third support level is established at 65.205, reflecting the swing high from April 23.
60.105: An additional downside target is noted at 60.105, corresponding to the low point marked May 30.
Fundamentals
Oil prices climbed after renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran over the weekend, raising fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East—a region responsible for about a third of global crude output. Brent surged as much as 5.5% before trimming gains, while WTI hovered near $74. Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field added to market anxiety, though Iran's oil export infrastructure remains intact for now.
The biggest concern remains the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for roughly 20% of the world's oil. Analysts caution that unless such a blockade materializes, prices may stay capped below $80. Meanwhile, heightened volatility and a bullish tilt in options markets suggest traders are preparing for further escalation.
Conclusion
As markets digest a critical week of economic releases and central bank policy decisions, geopolitical uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over energy markets. Crude oil remains supported by both technical strength and fundamental risk factors, though upside may be tempered without a material escalation in regional tensions. With volatility elevated and key data on deck, traders should remain alert to both macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical developments that could reshape near-term price action.