As investors prepare for a fresh round of economic data from the U.S., UK, and Canada, crude oil finds itself navigating a fragile recovery amid persistent macro and geopolitical headwinds. While a temporary pause on tariffs by President Trump has provided short-term relief, broader market sentiment remains cautious. Internal tensions within OPEC+, uneven compliance with output quotas, and speculation-driven positioning continue to weigh on the outlook. Against this backdrop, the coming data releases and evolving policy signals may prove pivotal in shaping the near-term direction of oil prices.
Overview
As investors prepare for a fresh round of economic data from the U.S., UK, and Canada, crude oil finds itself navigating a fragile recovery amid persistent macro and geopolitical headwinds. While a temporary pause on tariffs by President Trump has provided short-term relief, broader market sentiment remains cautious. Internal tensions within OPEC+, uneven compliance with output quotas, and speculation-driven positioning continue to weigh on the outlook. Against this backdrop, the coming data releases and evolving policy signals may prove pivotal in shaping the near-term direction of oil prices.
Key Economic Events
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) - UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)
Technical Analysis
Following its 2025 low of $55.18 per barrel, Crude Oil has staged a modest recovery, buoyed in part by President Trump's announcement of a ninety-day tariff pause. However, from a technical perspective, the rebound lacks strong confirmation. Prices remain capped both the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) below, suggesting that broader bearish pressure is still intact.
The Momentum Oscillator has shifted above the 100 baseline, indicating early signs of improving sentiment and potential upside traction. Yet, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains anchored below the 50 level, highlighting a lack of conviction among buyers. This divergence between indicators reflects an uncertain near-term outlook, where any sustained move higher would require a break above key resistance levels and firmer bullish confirmation. Until then, caution is warranted as price action navigates through a technically fragile zone.
Potential Upside Targets
If buyers take control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
70.405: The first level of resistance is determined at 70.405, which reflects the weekly resistance, R2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
72.926: The second resistance level is observed at 72.926, which aligns with the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 68.208 to 65.292.
76.041: The third price objective is projected at 76.041, representing the peak from February 2.
77.644: An additional price objective is projected at 77.644, representing the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 68.208 to 65.292.
Potential Downside Targets
If sellers maintain control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
61.477: The initial support level is estimated at 61.477, representing the weekly support, S1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
58.756: The second support level is determined at 58.756, aligning with the weekly support, S2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
57.188: The third support level is established at 57.188, reflecting the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
55.181: An additional downside target is noted at 55.181, corresponding to the trough marked April 9.
Fundamentals
Oil markets are facing turbulence due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. While U.S. stock markets rallied on news of potential tariff reductions on China, oil prices dropped amid concerns over demand and market volatility. OPEC+ plans to accelerate production increases to address falling prices, but internal discord persists, with Kazakhstan defying quotas to prioritize national interests. This has compounded the challenges of compliance within the group. Volatility in oil markets has surged, and analysts warn of potential instability as geopolitical and economic factors continue to influence market sentiment.
Conclusion
Crude oil remains caught between tentative optimism and persistent headwinds. While a tariff pause and a modest technical rebound offer some breathing room, the broader outlook is still shaped by a complex mix of policy uncertainty, OPEC+ discord, and fragile demand signals. As volatility remains elevated and speculative flows unwind, upcoming economic data will play a crucial role in validating—or challenging—the current price trajectory. Until clearer catalysts emerge, traders may remain cautious, with oil prices vulnerable to renewed pressure or, conversely, a breakout should sentiment and fundamentals realign.