This week brings a series of high-impact economic releases that could shape market sentiment and influence currency movements—particularly the US dollar. From U.S. manufacturing and labor market data to Switzerland's inflation figures, traders will be watching closely for clues about future monetary policy decisions. These events come at a critical time for the USDCHF pair, which has been trending lower since mid-May.
Overview
This week brings a series of high-impact economic releases that could shape market sentiment and influence currency movements—particularly the US dollar. From U.S. manufacturing and labor market data to Switzerland's inflation figures, traders will be watching closely for clues about future monetary policy decisions. These events come at a critical time for the USDCHF pair, which has been trending lower since mid-May.
Key Economic Events
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) - USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) - USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+3) - USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) - Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) - USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Technical Analysis
Since peaking at 0.85752 on May 12, the USDCHF pair has remained on a downward trajectory, reinforced by bearish chart formations and confirmation from key technical indicators. The decline was initiated by a failure swing pattern: the subsequent peak at 0.83466 failed to exceed the previous high, followed by a decisive break below the prior trough at 0.81869, opening the door to further downside.
Bearish sentiment was further validated by the formation of a "Death Cross," where the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed below the 50-period EMA—often interpreted as a medium-term sell signal.
Technical indicators continue to support the bearish bias. The Momentum Oscillator remains entrenched below the 100 level, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding below the 50 mark, both consistent with sustained downward pressure.
That said, a note of caution is warranted. A positive divergence between the Momentum Oscillator and recent price action suggests that bearish momentum may be starting to fade, potentially signaling a pause or short-term rebound in the broader downtrend.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.80547: The initial resistance is seen at 0.80547, which reflects the swing low marked on June 13.
0.81331: The second price target is identified at 0.81331, which corresponds to the weekly resistance, R1, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.82143: The third target is established at 0.82143, mirroring the daily high from June 19.
0.83466: An additional price target is estimated at 0.83466, corresponding to the peak formed on May 28.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.79565: The first level of support is set at 0.79565, representing the daily low from June 27.
0.78957: The second support level is identified at 0.78957, reflecting the weekly support, S1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.77965: The third support level is estimated at 0.77965, representing the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.80547 to 0.82143.
0.75382: An additional downward target is observed at 0.75382, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.80547 to 0.82143.
Fundamentals
The US dollar weakened on Monday, falling against major currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc. Investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner than expected—possibly as early as September—especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts could happen if inflation stays low.
Hopes for trade deals with countries like China and Canada also boosted market optimism, further pressuring the dollar.
All eyes are now on Friday's US jobs report, which could influence the Fed's next move.
Conclusion
With a packed economic calendar and growing speculation around US monetary policy, this week could prove pivotal for the USDCHF pair. Technical indicators continue to favor the bearish case, though signs of waning momentum suggest a potential pause or short-term rebound may be on the horizon. Traders should remain alert to key data releases—particularly US employment figures and Swiss inflation—as they may provide the next catalyst for directional movement. In this environment, flexibility and disciplined risk management will be essential.