After peaking at 1.12016 in August, the EURUSD pair entered a distribution phase within a consolidation range, encountering significant resistance and support levels. The US dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset—bolstered by geopolitical unrest, strong US jobs, and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—has strengthened it against the Euro, leading to a downtrend. Technical indicators signal sustained bearish momentum, with potential upside and downside targets identified. Additionally, fundamental factors such as the US presidential election and its potential impact on dollar policies have increased market volatility.
Overview
After peaking at 1.12016 in August, the EURUSD pair entered a distribution phase within a consolidation range, encountering significant resistance and support levels. The US dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset—bolstered by geopolitical unrest, strong US jobs, and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—has strengthened it against the Euro, leading to a downtrend. Technical indicators signal sustained bearish momentum, with potential upside and downside targets identified. Additionally, fundamental factors such as the US presidential election and its potential impact on dollar policies have increased market volatility.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 04:00 am (GMT+3) - New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
Wednesday 14:30 - (GMT+3) - USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: CPI m/m (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) - UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: PPI (USD)
Technical Analysis
After peaking at 1.12016 in August, EURUSD entered a distribution phase, constrained within a consolidation range. Resistance was established at 1.12134, while support formed at 1.10020, reflecting a temporary equilibrium as the market awaited new developments. However, the appeal of the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty, combined with robust Nonfarm payroll data, bolstered the Dollar's strength against the Euro.
The decisive break below the 1.10020 support level triggered a shift in sentiment, paving the way for a downtrend. Prices began closing below the Lower Bollinger Band, amplifying bearish momentum. Technical indicators further support this downward bias: the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been breached, with prices trading below it; the Momentum Oscillator has dropped below the 100 mark; and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50, all signaling sustained selling pressure in the near term.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
1.10020: The initial resistance is identified at 1.10020, which reflects the swing low from September 11.
1.10445: The second price target is set at 1.10445, corresponding to the weekly Pivot Point (PP) estimated using the standard methodology.
1.11381: The third target is established at 1.11381, aligning with the weekly resistance (R1) estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.12134: An additional price target is estimated at 1.12134, corresponding to the peak established on September 25.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
1.08724: The first level of support is identified at 1.08724, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 1.10020 to the swing high of 1.12134.
1.07774: The second support level is established at 1.07774, reflecting the daily low marked on August 1.
1.06627: The third support level is identified at 1.06627, representing the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 1.10020 to the swing high of 1.12134.
1.06229: An additional downward target is observed at 1.06229, corresponding to the weekly support (S3) estimated using the standard Pivots Point methodology.
Fundamentals
The US dollar saw its strongest weekly gain since 2022, rising 1.6% due to geopolitical unrest, a strong US economy, and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The surge negatively impacted other currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, which saw its worst performance since 2009. Traders are also preparing for potential dollar volatility as the tight US presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump approaches. The cost of one-month options tied to the dollar index surged to its highest since March 2023, reflecting uncertainty around the election's impact on dollar policies.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the EURUSD pair remains under pressure as the US dollar strengthens amid geopolitical unrest, robust economic data, and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Technical indicators suggest sustained bearish momentum, with key resistance and support levels providing a clear framework for potential market movements. Additionally, upcoming economic events and the US presidential election add to the uncertainty, increasing market volatility and influencing traders' positioning. The combination of these technical and fundamental factors points to continued downside risk for the Euro in the near term, with the US dollar's safe-haven appeal likely to remain a dominant driver.