This week's economic calendar features several high-impact releases that could influence market sentiment and trading direction, particularly in the GBPUSD pair. Key data points include the UK's monthly GDP report and multiple US indicators such as Producer Price Index (PPI), Unemployment Claims, and preliminary readings for Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations from the University of Michigan. These figures will offer fresh insight into the relative health of both economies and may provide catalysts for volatility in currency markets.
With GBPUSD maintaining an overall bullish structure, traders will be watching closely for confirmation or disruption of this trend based on upcoming economic data.
Overview
This week's economic calendar features several high-impact releases that could influence market sentiment and trading direction, particularly in the GBPUSD pair. Key data points include the UK's monthly GDP report and multiple US indicators such as Producer Price Index (PPI), Unemployment Claims, and preliminary readings for Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations from the University of Michigan. These figures will offer fresh insight into the relative health of both economies and may provide catalysts for volatility in currency markets.
With GBPUSD maintaining an overall bullish structure, traders will be watching closely for confirmation or disruption of this trend based on upcoming economic data.
Key Economic Events
Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)
Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)
Technical Analysis
Since establishing a low of 1.20987 on January 13, GBPUSD has sustained a well-defined upward trajectory, marked by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The initial reversal was signaled by the appearance of a Hammer candlestick formation, indicating the end of the prior downtrend and the onset of a bullish phase.
This directional shift was subsequently confirmed by the development of a failure swing pattern—an established technical reversal signal—adding credibility to the upward bias. Further reinforcing the trend, a "Golden Cross" occurred as the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 50-period EMA, providing additional confirmation of bullish momentum.
Momentum indicators remain supportive of the uptrend. The Momentum Oscillator continues to trade above the 100 level, signaling persistent upward pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, reflecting prevailing buying interest. A sustained breakout above the 1.36161 resistance level would likely open the door to further gains.
However, the emergence of negative divergence between the price and the Momentum Oscillator warrants caution. This divergence suggests a potential loss of bullish momentum and introduces the risk of a short-term corrective pullback.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
1.36161: The initial resistance level is established at 1.36161, which mirrors the daily high marked on June 5.
1.37152: The second price target is set at 1.37152, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 1.36161 to 1.34558.
1.37755: The third price objective is observed at 1.37755, corresponding with the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.38755: An additional upside target is projected at 1.38755, mirroring the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 1.36161 to 1.34558.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
1.34149: The initial support level is seen at 1.34149, corresponding to the swing low recorded on May 28.
1.32796: The second support level is estimated at 1.32796, representing the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.31393: The third support level is identified at 1.31393, reflecting a trough marked on May 12.
1.27778: An additional downside target is 1.27778, mirroring the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 1.34149 to 1.36161.
Fundamentals
Inflation in the US rose less than expected in May, with consumer prices up just 0.1% and annual inflation edging to 2.4%, easing concerns about an immediate price surge from recent tariffs. Core inflation remained stable at 2.8%, and falling gas prices helped keep the monthly gain modest.
While the data offered relief to consumers and markets—boosting stock indexes—early signs of tariff-driven cost increases began to surface in select goods like appliances and toys. Analysts noted that many businesses are still absorbing higher import costs, though this may prove unsustainable.
On the other hand, UK real GDP fell by 0.3% in April 2025 after rising 0.2% in March. Despite this, GDP grew by 0.7% in the three months to April, with some activity likely brought forward earlier in the year.
All major sectors contributed to three-month growth. Services rose 0.6%, driven by gains in administrative support, information and communication, and retail-related activities. Production and construction rose by 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively.
Conclusion
As markets digest this week's key economic releases, the interplay between UK and US fundamentals will remain central to the GBPUSD outlook. With the pair showing strong technical momentum yet signs of potential exhaustion, upcoming data will be critical in determining whether the uptrend can extend or if a pullback is on the horizon. Traders should stay alert to any surprises in inflation, sentiment, or employment figures, as these may tip the balance of sentiment and drive the next significant move.