Gold Poised For Further Gains Amid Global Uncertainty

Andreas Thalassinos
Andreas Thalassinos

04.10.2024

Gold has solidified its position as a safe-haven asset, particularly in the context of heightened global geopolitical tensions and evolving economic conditions.  Following its recent all-time high of $2,685.56 in September, Gold remains an attractive choice for investors seeking stability amid market uncertainty.  Central banks, led by nations like Poland and India, continue to accumulate Gold, driven by a desire to diversify away from the US dollar.  Additionally, with recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening dollar, the bullish outlook for Gold is further supported, offering significant upside potential for the precious metal as global risks persist.

Overview

Gold has solidified its position as a safe-haven asset, particularly in the context of heightened global geopolitical tensions and evolving economic conditions. Following its recent all-time high of $2,685.56 in September, Gold remains an attractive choice for investors seeking stability amid market uncertainty. Central banks, led by nations like Poland and India, continue to accumulate Gold, driven by a desire to diversify away from the US dollar. Additionally, with recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening dollar, the bullish outlook for Gold is further supported, offering significant upside potential for the precious metal as global risks persist.

Key Economic Events

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

Technical Analysis

After reaching an all-time high of 2685.56 on September 9, Gold has entered a consolidation phase, preparing for a potential upward rally to surpass its previous peak. The metal found support at 2624.64 and is now poised to retest the all-time high, backed by strong bullish momentum.

From a technical perspective, Gold continues to exhibit a favorable outlook. It is trading above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating sustained upward momentum. Furthermore, the Momentum oscillator remains above 100, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above 50, reinforcing the likelihood of continued buying pressure in the near term.

Potential Upside Targets  

Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:

2685.56: The initial resistance is 2685.56, which aligns with the daily high established on September 26.

2723.21: The second price target is identified at 2723.21, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high of 2685.56 down to the swing low of 2624.64.

2762.88: The third target is established at 2762.88, aligning with the weekly resistance (R3) estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

2784.13: An additional price target is estimated at 2784.13, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high of 2685.56 down to the swing low of 2624.64.

Potential Downside Targets  

Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:

2624.64: The first level of support is identified at 2624.64, representing the swing low formed on September 30.

2586.13: The second support level is 2586.13, reflecting the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 2624.64 to the swing high of 2685.56.

2547.78: The third support level is identified at 2547.78, representing the weekly support (S3) estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

2523.81: An additional downward target is observed at 2523.81, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 2624.64 to the swing high of 2685.56.

Fundamentals

As reported by Forbes, Gold has climbed over 20% since April 2024, now trading at approximately $2,685 per ounce, supported by strong central bank demand and evolving macroeconomic conditions. Central banks, including those from Poland, India, and potentially Saudi Arabia, have continued to increase their gold holdings as part of efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar.  Additionally, the recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening US dollar have further enhanced Gold's attractiveness.  With inflation remaining elevated and the potential for underreported central bank purchases, the outlook for Gold remains bullish, suggesting further upward momentum.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Gold remains firmly positioned as a safe-haven asset with strong technical and fundamental support. Its recent consolidation phase and robust central bank demand, coupled with macroeconomic shifts such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening US dollar, indicate that Gold's bullish momentum is likely to persist. As geopolitical tensions continue to drive risk aversion, Gold’s appeal as a stable store of value is further reinforced, making it an attractive asset for investors seeking both protection and potential upside in the current market environment.

Share on

Andreas Thalassinos
Andreas Thalassinos

Andreas Thalassinos is a recognized authority in the financial markets and world renowned for his expertise in algorithmic trading. He is a Certified Technical Analyst and highly respected lecturer in the education of traders, investors, and financial markets professionals. Thalassinos has played a key role in the development of education within the industry, training tens of thousands of traders of all skill levels. Traders value his seminars and workshops for the rich content, his passionate, charismatic, and lively presentations.