The Nasdaq 100 faces a critical juncture as investors brace for high-impact economic data from both Canada and the United States. Scheduled for release at 15:30 (GMT+2), Canada's Employment Change and the US Non-Farm Employment Change reports are likely to inject further volatility into already fragile market conditions.
With the Nasdaq 100 in the midst of a sharp technical reversal and broader market sentiment deteriorating under the weight of trade tensions, inflation concerns, and rising recession risks, traders will closely monitor these key releases for signs of further economic weakness or resilience.
Overview
The Nasdaq 100 faces a critical juncture as investors brace for high-impact economic data from both Canada and the United States. Scheduled for release at 15:30 (GMT+2), Canada's Employment Change and the US Non-Farm Employment Change reports are likely to inject further volatility into already fragile market conditions.
With the Nasdaq 100 in the midst of a sharp technical reversal and broader market sentiment deteriorating under the weight of trade tensions, inflation concerns, and rising recession risks, traders will closely monitor these key releases for signs of further economic weakness or resilience.
Key Economic Events
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) - Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) - USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
Technical Analysis
Following the February 18 record high at 22,226.36, the Nasdaq 100 has undergone a meaningful technical reversal, driven by a combination of deteriorating price action and shifting market sentiment. The formation of a Hanging Man candlestick at the peak signaled waning bullish momentum, with the subsequent breakdown below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) providing an initial indication that sellers were gaining control.
The technical outlook has further deteriorated with the emergence of a Death Cross, as the 20-period EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA — a classic bearish signal historically associated with extended downside pressure.
Momentum indicators continue to align with this bearish shift. The Momentum Oscillator has fallen decisively below the 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains anchored below 50, indicating persistent selling pressure. Bollinger Bands have also expanded, with price action closing below the lower band — a typical indication of trend continuation.
Taken together, these technical developments point to a bearish bias for the Nasdaq 100 in the near term, with sellers maintaining the upper hand unless conditions materially improve.
Potential Upside Targets
If buyers take control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
20396.88: The first level of resistance is determined at 20396.88, which reflects the low point marked February 28.
21066.47: The second resistance level is observed at 21066.47, which aligns with the peak from March 3.
21585.89: The third price objective is projected at 21585.89, representing the weekly resistance, R1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
22226.36: An additional price objective is projected at 22226.36, representing the daily high reached on February 18.
Potential Downside Targets
If sellers maintain control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
19958.48: The initial support level is estimated at 19958.48, representing the daily low marked March 6.
19652.05: The second support level is determined at 19652.05, aligning with the weekly support, S2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
19313.48: The third downside target is observed at 19313.48, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 20396.88 to 21066.47.
18907.23: An additional downside target is noted at 18907.23, reflecting the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Fundamentals
Wall Street's tech rally has quickly reversed into panic, with the Nasdaq 100 down 9.6% from its February 18 record. Semiconductor stocks are leading the selloff, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index already in a bear market, down nearly 24% from its peak.
Investors are increasingly bracing for further declines, driven by fears of escalating trade wars, persistent inflation, and recession risks. Short interest in semiconductor ETFs has surged, and traders are actively seeking protection against further losses.
The shift in sentiment reflects a broader repricing of tech sector growth prospects as markets shift focus from AI-fueled optimism to fears over tariffs, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical instability.
Financial markets are increasingly signaling higher recession risks as tariff uncertainty and weak economic data weigh on sentiment. JPMorgan estimates the probability of a US recession has risen to 31%, up from 17% in November, with five-year Treasuries and base metals pointing to a near 50% chance of contraction.
Slowing factory activity, falling consumer confidence, and weaker spending and housing data are driving concerns, especially with new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China taking effect. While the labor market remains resilient, ongoing uncertainty around trade policy, inflation, and Federal Reserve actions keeps economic risks tilted to the downside.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Nasdaq 100 remains under significant pressure as technical weakness aligns with growing fundamental risks. Trade tensions, persistent inflation, and recession fears continue to weigh on sentiment, while upcoming employment data from the US and Canada could further shape near-term direction. With sellers firmly in control and uncertainty running high, traders should remain cautious and closely monitor both economic data and technical signals for any signs of stabilization or further downside acceleration.