As the trading week progresses, attention turns to a series of key economic releases that may influence market sentiment and price action. With data due from Australia, Switzerland, and the UK, volatility could pick up across major currency pairs. In the spotlight, NZDUSD shows signs of technical weakness following a recent rally, while broader fundamentals continue to shape expectations around monetary policy paths.
Overview
As the trading week progresses, attention turns to a series of key economic releases that may influence market sentiment and price action. With data due from Australia, Switzerland, and the UK, volatility could pick up across major currency pairs. In the spotlight, NZDUSD shows signs of technical weakness following a recent rally, while broader fundamentals continue to shape expectations around monetary policy paths.
Key Economic Events
Thursday 01:45 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)
Thursday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 14:00 (GMT+3) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Technical Analysis
Following the rally to 0.60823 on June 16, NZDUSD has come under pressure, with the decline driven by a combination of weakening technical momentum and evolving fundamental conditions. The initial warning came from a negative divergence between the Momentum Oscillator and price, signaling a potential loss of bullish strength.
The reversal gained traction with the confirmation of a non-failure swing pattern. The pair posted a new high at 0.60863, exceeding the prior peak, but the subsequent break below the interim trough at 0.59935 marked a significant shift in market structure—suggesting a bearish reversal in progress.
Momentum indicators have since tilted in favor of sellers. The Momentum Oscillator has dropped below the 100 level, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) now trades under the 50 mark, both pointing to increased downside pressure. However, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains above the 50-period EMA, and the price continues to hover near that zone, highlighting mixed signals and the potential for near-term consolidation before further directional clarity emerges.
Potential Upside Targets
If buyers take control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
0.60255: The initial resistance level is estimated at 0.60255, representing the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
0.60863: The second resistance level is determined at 0.60863, aligning with the daily high from June 16.
0.61301: The third resistance level is established at 0.61301, reflecting the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.60213 to 0.58450.
0.63061: An additional upside target is noted at 0.63061, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.60213 to 0.58450.
Potential Downside Targets
If sellers maintain control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
0.59361: The first support level is observed at 0.59361, which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.59935 to 0.60863.
0.59049: The second support level is observed at 0.59049, which aligns with the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.58450: The third price objective is projected at 0.58450, representing the trough formed on May 12.
0.56932: An additional price objective is projected at 0.56932, representing the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.59935 to 0.60863.
Fundamentals
New Zealand's economy grew by 0.8% in Q1 2025, beating forecasts and easing recession concerns. The stronger-than-expected data may delay further interest rate cuts by the RBNZ, which has already lowered rates by 225 basis points since August 2024. While some sectors remain weak, broad-based growth signals a more resilient recovery, prompting the central bank to adopt a cautious stance in the near term.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for the sixth straight meeting, as expected. While officials still forecast 50 basis points of cuts in 2025, the 2026 outlook was downgraded to just 25 basis points. The decision comes amid persistent inflation, solid labor market data, and growing political pressure from President Trump, who has demanded aggressive rate cuts. Despite reduced uncertainty, the Fed remains cautious, given geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds.
Conclusion
With key economic data on the horizon and central banks maintaining a cautious stance, market participants should prepare for potential volatility across major pairs. NZDUSD remains in focus as technical signals point to growing downside pressure, though mixed momentum suggests the possibility of consolidation in the near term. As fundamentals evolve, traders will need to balance technical cues with macro developments to navigate the next move.