This week's markets are set for heightened volatility as traders brace for a heavy lineup of key economic releases and central bank decisions from the U.S., Canada, China, and Japan, with crude oil consolidating after a sharp rally and geopolitical tensions adding to supply risks. Both technical and fundamental signals point to a pivotal period ahead. From U.S. GDP and labor data to central bank rate moves, each release could shift sentiment and spark significant price action across commodities, currencies, and equities.
Overview
This week's markets are set for heightened volatility as traders brace for a heavy lineup of key economic releases and central bank decisions from the U.S., Canada, China, and Japan, with crude oil consolidating after a sharp rally and geopolitical tensions adding to supply risks. Both technical and fundamental signals point to a pivotal period ahead. From U.S. GDP and labor data to central bank rate moves, each release could shift sentiment and spark significant price action across commodities, currencies, and equities.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)
Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)
Wednesday 21:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)
Thursday 04:30 am (GMT+3) –China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Thursday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Technical Analysis
Crude oil has advanced sharply since bottoming at $55.181 per barrel on April 9, posting gains of more than 27% from trough to peak. Following a high of $78.275, prices have transitioned into a consolidation phase, with key support at $65.101 and resistance at $69.776. A clear breakout above resistance could signal renewed upside momentum and open the path toward higher price objectives.
Currently, price action remains above the 50‑period Exponential Moving Average, reflecting an underlying shift toward bullish market sentiment. This outlook is supported by momentum indicators — the Momentum Oscillator has moved firmly above the 100 baseline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trade above the 50 level, suggesting persistent upward pressure.
Conversely, a sustained move below the $65.101 support would invalidate the bullish bias, potentially triggering accelerated downside movement and reinforcing a near‑term bearish scenario.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
70.460: The initial resistance is $70.460, which represents the daily high reached on July 29.
75.389: The second price target is identified at $75.389, corresponding to the monthly resistance, R1, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
78.275: The third target is established at $78.275, aligning with the swing high from June 22.
81.004: An additional price target is estimated at $81.004, which corresponds to the monthly resistance, R2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
65.205: The first level of support is identified at $65.205, representing the swing high marked on April 23.
60.105: The second support level is $60.105, reflecting the daily low from May 30.
55.181: The third support level is identified at $55.181, corresponding to the swing low from April 9.
52.025: An additional downward target is observed at $52.025, corresponding to the monthly support, S2, estimates using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Fundamentals
Oil prices paused on Wednesday after jumping more than 3% the day before, as traders watched for developments following U.S. President Donald Trump's tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Brent crude traded at around $71.81 a barrel, and U.S. WTI at $69.29, both near their highest levels since late June.
Trump warned he would impose steep tariffs — including 100% duties on trading partners — if Russia didn't act within 10 to 12 days. The U.S. also cautioned China against buying Russian oil, while India signaled it might comply with potential sanctions, which could impact millions of barrels of daily exports.
Other factors supporting prices include eased U.S.-EU trade tensions, ongoing Venezuela oil supply talks, and steady global growth forecasts from the IMF, despite warnings about risks from trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.
Conclusion
With a packed calendar of market-moving events and geopolitical risks keeping oil prices elevated, traders should prepare for sharp swings in sentiment. Crude's consolidation phase may soon give way to a breakout, while macroeconomic data and central bank decisions will set the tone for broader market direction. In such an environment, flexibility and disciplined risk management will be essential for navigating the days ahead.