This week brings a series of high-impact economic releases likely to influence currency markets and broader risk sentiment. Attention kicks off early Wednesday with New Zealand's Official Cash Rate decision, followed by key US data, including crude oil inventories, CPI, PPI, and weekly jobless claims—critical for gauging the Fed's next move. The UK's monthly GDP print on Friday adds to the mix of market-moving events.
On the technical front, USDCHF remains in a defined downtrend since its January peak, with a bearish structure reinforced by both momentum indicators and key moving average crossovers. While downside pressure remains dominant, any shift in sentiment could prompt a move toward several key resistance levels.
Overview
This week brings a series of high-impact economic releases likely to influence currency markets and broader risk sentiment. Attention kicks off early Wednesday with New Zealand's Official Cash Rate decision, followed by key US data, including crude oil inventories, CPI, PPI, and weekly jobless claims—critical for gauging the Fed's next move. The UK's monthly GDP print on Friday adds to the mix of market-moving events.
On the technical front, USDCHF remains in a defined downtrend since its January peak, with a bearish structure reinforced by both momentum indicators and key moving average crossovers. While downside pressure remains dominant, any shift in sentiment could prompt a move toward several key resistance levels.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 05:00 am (GMT+3) - New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: CPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) - UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Technical Analysis
Since peaking at 0.91997 on January 13, USDCHF has entered a sustained downtrend, retracing over 8.5% from its cycle high. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows underscores a bearish structural shift, confirming sustained downside momentum.
The initial reversal was validated by a classic failure swing, with the secondary peak at 0.91955 falling short of the prior high, followed by a clean break below the 0.89641 support level. This development signaled a clear change in market structure and ushered in a new bearish phase.
The formation of a "Death Cross," where the 20-period EMA fell below the 50-period EMA, further supports the bearish narrative. This crossover typically reflects waning market confidence and raises the potential for further downside extension.
Momentum indicators remain firmly aligned with the negative trend: the Momentum Oscillator has dipped below the 100 line, reflecting increased selling pressure, while RSI continues to hold below 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.86449: The initial resistance is 0.86449, which represents the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
0.87547: The second price target is identified at 0.87547, corresponding to the trough from March 20.
0.88629: The third target is established at 0.88629, aligning with the peak marked March 14.
0.90235: An additional price target is estimated at 0.90235, corresponding to the weekly resistance, R2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.84755: The first level of support is determined at 0.84755, representing the low point marked April 4.
0.84143: The second support level is identified at 0.84143, reflecting the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.87570 to 0.88629.
0.82663: The third support level is seen at 0.82663, mirroring the weekly support, S2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.80570: An additional downward target is observed at 0.80570, corresponding to the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Fundamentals
Investors offloaded the US dollar in favor of traditional safe havens such as the yen and Swiss franc on Monday following President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, sparking fears of a global recession and battering risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The dollar tumbled to a six-month low against the yen and slid against the franc, eroding its usual safe-haven status as markets grew anxious over the impact of tariffs on US economic growth. China, which responded with additional levies and export restrictions, has joined more than 50 nations in seeking trade talks, while traders now price in the possibility of deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts to bolster the world's largest economy.
The Swiss Federal Council announced it will not directly retaliate against President Donald Trump's 31% tariff on Swiss goods. Instead, Swiss officials will focus on dialogue and clarification, tasking the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs with assessing the impact. While concerned about the punitive nature of the tariffs, the government emphasizes that escalation is not in Switzerland's interest. Pharmaceuticals and gold—Switzerland's top exports—are exempt, but machinery, watches, and agri-food products will be affected. Economy ministers Karin Keller-Sutter and Guy Parmelin plan to visit the US in late April to seek a negotiated solution.
Conclusion
This week's combination of major economic releases and heightened geopolitical tensions set the stage for elevated market volatility. With the USD under pressure amid recession fears and escalating trade disputes, safe-haven demand continues to benefit the yen and Swiss franc. Meanwhile, USDCHF remains technically weak, with downside momentum intact unless a fundamental shift or positive catalyst emerges. As investors navigate central bank decisions and critical inflation data, the balance between risk sentiment and technical levels will be key in determining short-term price action. Caution and flexibility remain essential in the current environment.