This week's market outlook centers on a packed slate of high-impact economic data, with flash PMI releases from France, Germany, the UK, and the US set to provide fresh insight into regional growth momentum and sector performance. In addition, Europe's Main Refinancing Rate decision may influence monetary policy expectations ahead of key inflation reports. These fundamental drivers coincide with ongoing strength in the S&P 500, which recently notched a fresh all-time high, supported by strong technical structure and resilient investor sentiment despite rising trade uncertainties.
Overview
This week's market outlook centers on a packed slate of high-impact economic data, with flash PMI releases from France, Germany, the UK, and the US set to provide fresh insight into regional growth momentum and sector performance. In addition, Europe's Main Refinancing Rate decision may influence monetary policy expectations ahead of key inflation reports. These fundamental drivers coincide with ongoing strength in the S&P 500, which recently notched a fresh all-time high, supported by strong technical structure and resilient investor sentiment despite rising trade uncertainties.
Key Economic Events
Thursday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Thursday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Thursday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
Thursday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)
Thursday 15:15 (GMT+3) – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)
Thursday 16:45 (GMT3) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Thursday 16:45 (GMT3) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Technical Analysis
Since hitting a low of 4806.60 on April 6, the S&P 500 Index has maintained strong bullish momentum, appreciating over 31% from trough to peak. This performance is characterized by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, a textbook indication of a sustained uptrend.
The initial reversal was marked by a Hammer candlestick, reflecting a rise in buying interest. This was confirmed by the development of a failure swing reversal, as the subsequent low at 5099.10 remained above the prior trough and price action broke cleanly above the 5491.90 swing high.
Further strengthening the bullish outlook, a Golden Cross formed when the 20-period exponential moving average crossed above the 50-period EMA, reinforcing signs of increasing upward momentum.
Technical indicators continue to support the prevailing trend. The Momentum oscillator remains above the 100 mark, and the Relative Strength Index is solidly positioned above its midpoint, suggesting persistent buying interest and further upside potential.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
6387.38: The initial resistance is 6387.38, which represents the weekly resistance, R2, caluclated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
6414.67: The second price target is identified at 6414.67, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 6282.80, to the low point, 6201.30.
6457.27: The third target is established at 6457.27, aligning with the weekly resistance, R3, caluclated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
6546.53: An additional price target is estimated at 6546.53, which corresponds to the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 6282.80, to the low point, 6201.30.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
6201.30: The first level of support is identified at 6201.30, representing the daily low marked on July 16.
6154.98: The second support level is 6154.98, reflecting the weekly support, S2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
6069.50: The third support level is identified at 6069.50, corresponding to the high point from June 11.
5915.40: An additional downward target is observed at 5915.40, corresponding to the low point from June 19.
Fundamentals
The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high on Tuesday, edging up 0.23% despite broader market volatility and lingering trade tensions. This gain marks yet another milestone in its steady upward trajectory, underscoring investor resilience even as geopolitical and corporate headwinds persist.
While the Dow posted a more robust gain of 0.54%, it was the S&P 500's record finish that captured market attention. The index's advance came amid fresh concerns surrounding US trade policy, as General Motors reported a $1 billion quarterly hit from tariffs. GM shares plunged over 8%, contributing to mixed sector performance.
Analysts point to mounting uncertainty ahead of President Trump's trade deadline, with potential delays already signaled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding China. Despite this backdrop, the S&P 500 continues to benefit from sectoral rotation and investor appetite for quality growth, further reinforcing its leadership position in the current market cycle.
Conclusion
Looking ahead, the convergence of technical strength and supportive macroeconomic data continues to favor the bullish case for the S&P 500. With key economic releases and policy decisions on deck, market participants will closely monitor fresh signals for growth and inflation trends. While trade-related uncertainties persist, the index’s breakout to record highs highlights resilient investor conviction and the potential for further upside as long as momentum remains intact.