This week’s economic calendar is packed with high-impact data releases that could stir volatility across major currency pairs, particularly the EURUSD. Market participants are closely watching central bank decisions, inflation figures, and key U.S. employment data, all unfolding against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and mounting trade tensions. With the U.S. set to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2 and eurozone inflation data due soon, traders are treading cautiously. Political instability in France and shifting sentiment in European markets are also weighing on the euro, as technical indicators point to a possible inflection point in the EURUSD trend.
Overview
This week’s economic calendar is packed with high-impact data releases that could stir volatility across major currency pairs, particularly the EURUSD. Market participants are closely watching central bank decisions, inflation figures, and key U.S. employment data, all unfolding against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and mounting trade tensions. With the U.S. set to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2 and eurozone inflation data due soon, traders are treading cautiously. Political instability in France and shifting sentiment in European markets are also weighing on the euro, as technical indicators point to a possible inflection point in the EURUSD trend.
Key Economic Events
Tuesday 06:30 am (GMT+3) - Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) - USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) - USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+3) - USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) - Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) - USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
Technical Analysis
Since peaking at 1.09452 on March 18, the EURUSD pair has entered a corrective phase, declining by approximately 1.9% from high to low. Despite the short-term pullback, the broader technical structure remains constructive.
The Momentum Oscillator has dipped below the 100 baseline, reflecting a shift toward increased selling pressure in the near term. However, the pair continues to trade above both the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting that the prevailing trend remains upward.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains anchored above the 50 level, reinforcing the presence of underlying buying interest. While recent price action shows some loss of bullish momentum, the overall technical backdrop still favors a continuation of the uptrend, provided key support levels hold.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
1.08881: The initial resistance is 1.08881, which represents the weekly resistance, R1, estimated using Woodie's Pivot Points methodology.
1.09452: The second price target is identified at 1.09452, corresponding to the peak marked March 18.
1.10048: The third target is established at 1.10048, aligning with the weekly resistance, R3, caluclated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.12134: An additional price target is estimated at 1.12134, corresponding to the peak marked September, 2024.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
1.07426: The first level of support is determined at 1.07426, representing the low point from March 26.
1.06859: The second support level is identified at 1.06859, reflecting the weekly support, S1, estimated using Woodie's Pivot Points methodology coinciding with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average.
1.05326: The third support level is seen at 1.05326, corresponding to the peak formed on January 27.
1.04740: An additional downward target is observed at 1.04740, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from the low point, 1.01772, to the high point, 1.09542.
Fundamentals
European market sentiment has turned cautious as the region braces for U.S. tariffs set to begin on April 2, dampening optimism fueled by recent fiscal stimulus efforts. Concerns over potential economic disruption have led to a pullback in bullish trades, a shift back into safe-haven assets, and weakness in the euro after a recent rally. Equity markets have softened, particularly in sectors exposed to global trade, while long-term bond yields have declined as investors weigh the near-term impact of escalating tariff risks.
The euro slipped to 1.07985 as traders brace for eurozone inflation data and the rollout of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Market sentiment was further weighed down by political uncertainty in France after far-right leader Marine Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling EU funds and banned from the 2027 presidential race—raising concerns over France’s political stability and its impact on the broader eurozone.
Conclusion
As the week unfolds, market participants remain on high alert amid a convergence of key economic events, policy risks, and geopolitical uncertainty. With eurozone inflation data and U.S. tariffs set to dominate the agenda, EURUSD remains vulnerable to headline-driven volatility. While the technical outlook still leans moderately bullish, shifting fundamentals—particularly concerns over French political stability and the broader implications of trade disruptions—may limit upside potential. Traders should remain cautious and closely monitor both data releases and market sentiment, as the evolving landscape could set the tone for price action in the days ahead.