This week's economic calendar features a series of high-impact data releases that could drive volatility across major currency pairs. Key inflation and growth figures are due from Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., Germany, Canada, and China—offering critical insights into the global economic outlook and central bank policy paths. In the US, attention will be on preliminary GDP data and the Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, USDCAD remains under technical pressure, with the pair trading below key moving averages and bearish momentum persisting. However, with significant economic releases on deck and potential reversal signals forming, traders should brace for a potentially pivotal week.
Overview
This week's economic calendar features a series of high-impact data releases that could drive volatility across major currency pairs. Key inflation and growth figures are due from Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., Germany, Canada, and China—offering critical insights into the global economic outlook and central bank policy paths. In the US, attention will be on preliminary GDP data and the Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, USDCAD remains under technical pressure, with the pair trading below key moving averages and bearish momentum persisting. However, with significant economic releases on deck and potential reversal signals forming, traders should brace for a potentially pivotal week.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 4:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
Wednesday 5:00 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Saturday 4:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Technical Analysis
USDCAD continues to trade with a bearish bias following the decisive breach of the 1.37495 level on May 23. The pair remains under pressure, with price action holding below both the 20- and 50-period EMAs—confirming a prevailing downside trend and reinforcing short-term selling momentum.
Technical indicators support the bearish narrative: the Momentum Oscillator remains anchored below the 100 mark, and the RSI is firmly under the 50 threshold, suggesting continued downward pressure.
That said, caution is warranted. A positive divergence between the Momentum Oscillator and recent price action signals a potential weakening in bearish momentum. Additionally, the appearance of a Dragonfly Doji—typically associated with potential reversal setups—suggests a pause or corrective move could materialize before further downside resumes.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
1.38032: The initial resistance is seen at 1.38032, which reflects the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
1.40153: The second price target is identified at 1.40153, which is a daily peak marked on May 13.
1.41619: The third target is established at 1.41619, mirroring the weekly resistance, R3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.44142: An additional price target is estimated at 1.44142, corresponding to the peak formed on April 1.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
1.36853: The first level of support is set at 1.36853, representing the daily low from May 26.
1.35852: The second support level is identified at 1.35852, reflecting the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 1.37495 to 1.40153.
1.33705: The third support level is estimated at 1.33705, representing the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
1.28894: An additional downward target is observed at 1.28894, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 1.37495 to 1.40153.
Fundamentals
Canada is expected to avoid a recession in 2025, though economic growth will remain flat, according to a new Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report. The outlook highlights rising unemployment—projected to reach 7.3% by 2026—and warns of ongoing fiscal pressure amid weak investment and high household debt. To improve its economic prospects, the OECD recommends building more housing to ease affordability, removing internal trade barriers, and boosting research and development. The report also stresses the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline and preserving Canada's carbon pricing system, noting that recent cuts undermine climate goals.
Conclusion
With a packed economic calendar and heightened geopolitical sensitivity, markets are poised for increased volatility in the days ahead. USDCAD remains technically vulnerable, though signs of potential reversal warrant close monitoring. Meanwhile, Canada's flat growth outlook, rising unemployment, and fiscal challenges—outlined in the latest OECD report—underscore broader macroeconomic headwinds. As key data from the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Asia unfold, traders should remain nimble and prepared to adapt to shifting fundamentals and technical cues.