Since reaching a high of $77.913 per barrel in early July, crude oil prices have steadily declined, reflecting a combination of market dynamics and technical pressures. The drop has been fueled by weaker demand forecasts, particularly from major global importers, and concerns over a potential oversupply in the coming months. Geopolitical tensions have added further uncertainty, with traders watching closely for any disruptions to energy supplies. While some support levels are in sight, the overall sentiment remains cautious as economic stimulus efforts in key economies struggle to gain clarity, keeping downward pressure on prices in the near term.
Overview
Since reaching a high of $77.913 per barrel in early July, crude oil prices have steadily declined, reflecting a combination of market dynamics and technical pressures. The drop has been fueled by weaker demand forecasts, particularly from major global importers, and concerns over a potential oversupply in the coming months. Geopolitical tensions have added further uncertainty, with traders watching closely for any disruptions to energy supplies. While some support levels are in sight, the overall sentiment remains cautious as economic stimulus efforts in key economies struggle to gain clarity, keeping downward pressure on prices in the near term.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 12:45 am (GMT+3) - New Zealand: CPI q/q (NZD)
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) - UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
Thursday 03:30 am (GMT+3) - Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 15:15 (GMT+3) - Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) - USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) - UK: Retail Sales (GBP)
Technical Analysis
Since reaching $77.913 per barrel on July 7, crude oil prices have been on a steady decline. A bearish reversal pattern, known as a failure swing, has fueled the downward trend. The peak at $75.629 failed to break past the previous high, and when prices dropped below $71.158, it confirmed the beginning of a technical downtrend.
Technical signals further support this bearish outlook. Crude oil is trading below its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating ongoing downward momentum. The Momentum oscillator is has dropped below 100, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating that selling pressure is likely to persist. These signals suggest that crude oil prices could continue to face downward pressure in the near term.
Potential Upside Targets
Should the bulls take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
71.158: The initial resistance is 71.158, which aligns with the swing low from October 9.
72.171: The second price target is identified at 72.171, corresponding to the daily high marked on September 24.
75.629: The third target is established at 75.629, aligning with the swing high from October 10.
77.913: An additional price target is estimated at 77.913, corresponding to the daily high established on October 7.
Potential Downside Targets
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
68.395: The first level of support is seen at 68.395, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 71.158 to the swing high of 75.629.
65.523: The second support level is identified at 65.523, representing a daily low from September 10.
63.924: The third support level is at 63.924, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 71.158 to the swing high of 75.629.
56.690: An additional downward target is observed at 56.690, reflecting the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 71.158 to the swing high of 75.629.
Fundamentals
Oil prices continue to decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns about energy demand from key global importers. The Brent crude benchmark rebounded above $74 per barrel, while another major crude index, WTI, stabilized near $71. Market participants remain wary of potential disruptions to energy infrastructure and are closely monitoring economic stimulus efforts from large economies. Additionally, expectations of a potential oversupply next year have added to the uncertainty, with a recent report showing a notable increase in stockpiles. Traders are now awaiting further data to gauge consumption trends.
Conclusion
In conclusion, crude oil prices have experienced a consistent decline since early July, driven by a combination of technical factors and fundamental concerns, including weaker demand forecasts and the potential for oversupply. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding global economic stimulus efforts have further compounded the bearish outlook. While there are potential resistance levels that could offer upside opportunities, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with traders closely monitoring market developments for any signs of change in momentum.