Research & Education
EURUSD Downtrend Amid Geopolitical Unrest and Strong US Jobs
After peaking at 1.12016 in August, the EURUSD pair entered a distribution phase within a consolidation range, encountering significant resistance and support levels. The US dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset—bolstered by geopolitical unrest, strong US jobs, and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—has strengthened it against the Euro, leading to a downtrend. Technical indicators signal sustained bearish momentum, with potential upside and downside targets identified. Additionally, fundamental factors such as the US presidential election and its potential impact on dollar policies have increased market volatility.
Gold Poised For Further Gains Amid Global Uncertainty
Gold has solidified its position as a safe-haven asset, particularly in the context of heightened global geopolitical tensions and evolving economic conditions. Following its recent all-time high of $2,685.56 in September, Gold remains an attractive choice for investors seeking stability amid market uncertainty. Central banks, led by nations like Poland and India, continue to accumulate Gold, driven by a desire to diversify away from the US dollar. Additionally, with recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening dollar, the bullish outlook for Gold is further supported, offering significant upside potential for the precious metal as global risks persist.
GBPUSD Bullish Momentum Faces Potential Correction
This week's key economic events include several significant data releases, such as Nonfarm Employment Change and ISM Services PMI from the US, as well as Switzerland's CPI. The GBPUSD has maintained an upward trend since April, driven by a bullish failure swing pattern. Technical indicators like the 50-period EMA and RSI support the ongoing bullish momentum, though negative divergence with the Momentum oscillator suggests the potential for a correction. Traders are watching key resistance and support levels. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is considering a quarter-point rate cut in November, while the European Central Bank may implement a rate cut in October, influenced by falling inflation and economic slowdown in the Eurozone.
Crude Oil Pressure Persists
Crude oil prices have been in a downward trend since July 5, with a bearish reversal pattern confirming the shift. Key technical indicators point to continued bearish pressure, as crude trades below its 50-period EMA, and both the Momentum oscillator and RSI signal weakness. On the upside, key resistance levels to watch are $72.171, $78.412, $80.261, and $84.677, while potential support areas could be found at $65.523, $63.804, $61.415, and $54.767. Market fundamentals have added more pressure, with Saudi Arabia planning to increase production and weak demand from China, driving US crude prices down by 7.4% from Tuesday's high of $72.171 to yesterday's close.
EURGBP Bearish Momentum Persists
Since August 8, EURGBP has been in a sustained downtrend, following a rebound from 0.86247 and the formation of a failure swing pattern. The inability of the price to surpass the 0.85926 peak, coupled with a subsequent break below the key support level of 0.85301, has confirmed bearish momentum. The widening of the Bollinger Bands and price action closing below the Lower Band signals the likelihood of continued downside pressure.
GBPJPY on the Rise
The GBPJPY currency pair has been rallying since September 16, rebounding from a low of 183.711. Strong upward momentum is indicated by five consecutive bullish candles and supportive technical indicators like the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the Momentum oscillator above 100, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50. This bullish trend is expected to continue, especially if the pair breaks above the key level of 193.484, potentially paving the way for higher exchange rates.
All Eyes on Federal Reserve
This week's key economic events are dominated by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut, which could signal the onset of a broader monetary easing cycle. This potential policy shift is expected to have significant implications for global financial markets. In addition to the Fed's decision, pivotal data releases and central bank actions from other major economies—including the U.S., UK, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and Japan—will be closely watched. Markets will focus on inflation reports, GDP figures, and employment data to assess the trajectory of global economic growth and monetary policy. These developments are poised to influence market sentiment and provide critical insights into future economic conditions.
Gold Soars to Record High as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Ignite Precious Metals Rally
Yesterday, gold prices surged over 1.8% to hit a record high, reaching $2,571.00 per ounce today. This increase was driven by expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut next week, following signs of a slowing economy. The rise was fueled by slightly higher-than-expected producer prices and increased jobless claims, signaling potential economic weakness. Markets are betting on a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's upcoming meeting. Lower interest rates typically boost gold's appeal as a zero-yield investment. In addition to gold, silver saw gains of over 4.3% yesterday, and palladium gained 3.5%.
Key Economic Events and USDJPY Outlook for the Week
This week's key economic events include significant data releases and decisions from major global economies. The UK will report its monthly GDP on Wednesday, followed by the US CPI and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change data later in the day. Thursday will see the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, as well as US PPI and unemployment claims reports. In the forex market, technical analysis of the USDJPY pair points to a bearish outlook, with potential downside targets identified, though a positive divergence in indicators suggests a possible upward correction. The Bank of Japan's policy outlook may also shift based on inflation and wage growth trends.
Key Economic Events Set to Drive GBPUSD Movements
This week, key economic events are set to impact global markets, including the UK Claimant Count, US CPI data, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision. Traders will closely monitor these releases for potential shifts in monetary policy and market sentiment, particularly in relation to the GBPUSD pair. Technical analysis suggests both upside and downside targets, while fundamentals such as labor market data and inflation trends will play a crucial role in shaping price movements.