Research & Education

The latest employment figures in the United States have produced mixed results, leading to uncertainty in the market.  Additionally, speculation surrounding the Bank of Japan's potential exit from its negative interest rate policy has contributed to a downward trend in the USDJPY exchange rate, resulting in four consecutive bearish trading sessions.

Expectations are running high as traders brace for the next NFP release, which is scheduled for later today.  Consensus estimates project a job addition of 198,000 for the month, with the unemployment rate forecast to be 3.7%.  It is crucial for market participants to pay attention not only to the headline figures but also to underlying details, such as wage growth and labor force participation.

The price of Crude Oil has registered a second consecutive decline, currently standing at 78.442 US dollars per barrel.  The downward retracement is attributed to various factors, including concerns regarding the outlook for Chinese demand, an anticipated increase in US Crude Oil inventories for the previous week, due to be announced later today, and delays in physical oil deliveries due to geopolitical tensions.  Traders will closely monitor the market today due to significant economic data releases and their potential impact on Crude Oil.

The NZDUSD pair has exhibited an upward direction since February 20, when the Kiwi initiated a reversal to the upside on the price chart, surpassing the technical resistance level at 0.61584 following a decisive break of the downward channel. The bullish rally prompted the entry of bull positions in the market, which pulled the price higher. However, the rally lost its steam before reaching the first potential price target of 0.62258.
The 50-period Moving Average and the Momentum oscillator both support the upward bias, strengthening the notion of a potential rally.
Traders are expected to closely monitor a currency pair in light of the forthcoming release of significant economic data that could potentially impact currency valuations.

Despite the less-than-anticipated growth in crude oil stockpiles, as reported in the latest release, the commodity closed the week at $76.786 per barrel, unable to mount an upward rally due to concerns over weakening demand in the face of declining economic indicators in the United Kingdom for two consecutive quarters, Japan's economic contraction in the last quarter, persisting geopolitical tensions and delays in the US interest rate cuts. As a result, crude oil prices failed to surge despite the inventory data.

Gold is trading near the upper trendline of a descending channel, dominated by a rebounding dollar after recording six consecutive lower lows. However, the precious metal has encountered a confluence of resistance levels, posing a challenge to its upward trajectory and potential breakout. The resistance level at 2035.00, which coincides with the resistance calculated by the weekly Standard Pivot Points, has emerged as a significant barrier to the precious metal's upward momentum. Moreover, the Stochastic oscillator has generated an overbought alert, indicating the possibility of a downside in the near future. 

Investors eagerly anticipated earnings from the AI leader Nvidia (NVDA) while also reviewing the latest release of Federal Reserve minutes.  The FOMC minutes have reaffirmed the Fed's intentions to avoid cutting interest rates too quickly.  Despite this news, US stocks experienced a late-day rally, which helped improve market confidence.  Subsequently, the market has witnessed a resurgence of bullish momentum, which has propelled the S&P 500 toward its yearly peak.
Traders will be keeping a close eye on the market as significant economic data that has the potential to affect the economy's health is due to be released.

The Loonie is currently taking a breather before the release of important economic reports that may pull the USDCAD to higher exchange rates.
Traders will closely monitor the currency pair in light of the significant economic data that is set to be released tomorrow, which may have an impact on the currency valuations.