Research & Education

The remaining of the week presents a series of critical economic events and technical developments that could shape market movements.  Key reports from Australia, Europe, the US, and the UK are anticipated to drive currency fluctuations, with employment data, retail sales figures, and interest rate decisions in focus.  The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates further amid falling inflation and slowing growth, while in the US, retail sales and unemployment claims will provide insights into consumer strength and labor market trends.  Alongside these fundamental drivers, technical analysis of the EURUSD highlights sustained downward momentum, with key resistance and support levels outlining potential market directions for traders.

Since reaching a high of $77.913 per barrel in early July, crude oil prices have steadily declined, reflecting a combination of market dynamics and technical pressures.  The drop has been fueled by weaker demand forecasts, particularly from major global importers, and concerns over a potential oversupply in the coming months.  Geopolitical tensions have added further uncertainty, with traders watching closely for any disruptions to energy supplies.  While some support levels are in sight, the overall sentiment remains cautious as economic stimulus efforts in key economies struggle to gain clarity, keeping downward pressure on prices in the near term.

As key economic events unfold this Friday, including Canada's employment data and the US PPI, traders are watching closely for signals that could influence market dynamics, particularly in the USDCAD pair.  With the pair showing strong upward momentum since late September, breaking key resistance levels and supported by favorable technical indicators, the outlook remains bullish.
However, with significant data releases on the horizon and potential shifts in monetary policy, traders should be mindful of both upside potential and downside risks, as market sentiment could shift rapidly.

NZDUSD entered a significant downtrend after peaking at 0.63774 on September 30, driven by technical signals and fundamental factors.  The formation of a Shooting Star pattern confirmed the exhaustion of bullish momentum, leading to a decisive break below key technical levels, including the 50-period Exponential Moving Average.  With bearish candlesticks and momentum indicators signaling further downside potential, traders are closely monitoring key support levels.  Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent rate cut to 4.75% has added further pressure as the market faces weakening domestic economic conditions and global uncertainties.

After peaking at 1.12016 in August, the EURUSD pair entered a distribution phase within a consolidation range, encountering significant resistance and support levels.  The US dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset—bolstered by geopolitical unrest, strong US jobs, and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—has strengthened it against the Euro, leading to a downtrend.  Technical indicators signal sustained bearish momentum, with potential upside and downside targets identified.  Additionally, fundamental factors such as the US presidential election and its potential impact on dollar policies have increased market volatility.

Gold has solidified its position as a safe-haven asset, particularly in the context of heightened global geopolitical tensions and evolving economic conditions.  Following its recent all-time high of $2,685.56 in September, Gold remains an attractive choice for investors seeking stability amid market uncertainty.  Central banks, led by nations like Poland and India, continue to accumulate Gold, driven by a desire to diversify away from the US dollar.  Additionally, with recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening dollar, the bullish outlook for Gold is further supported, offering significant upside potential for the precious metal as global risks persist.

This week's key economic events include several significant data releases, such as Nonfarm Employment Change and ISM Services PMI from the US, as well as Switzerland's CPI.  The GBPUSD has maintained an upward trend since April, driven by a bullish failure swing pattern.  Technical indicators like the 50-period EMA and RSI support the ongoing bullish momentum, though negative divergence with the Momentum oscillator suggests the potential for a correction.  Traders are watching key resistance and support levels.  Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is considering a quarter-point rate cut in November, while the European Central Bank may implement a rate cut in October, influenced by falling inflation and economic slowdown in the Eurozone.

Crude oil prices have been in a downward trend since July 5, with a bearish reversal pattern confirming the shift. Key technical indicators point to continued bearish pressure, as crude trades below its 50-period EMA, and both the Momentum oscillator and RSI signal weakness. On the upside, key resistance levels to watch are $72.171, $78.412, $80.261, and $84.677, while potential support areas could be found at $65.523, $63.804, $61.415, and $54.767. Market fundamentals have added more pressure, with Saudi Arabia planning to increase production and weak demand from China, driving US crude prices down by 7.4% from Tuesday's high of $72.171 to yesterday's close.