Research & Education
Election Week, Central Banks, and Crude Oil Trends
This week's key economic events include the US presidential election, along with crucial central bank decisions from Australia, the UK, and the US, influencing AUD, GBP, and USD. Employment data released from the US and Canada will also provide insights into labor market conditions.
Crude oil remains in a sideways market, trading between $65.52 and $77.91, with indicators like the 50-period EMA, Momentum, and RSI suggesting a potential upward trend. Resistance levels to watch are $72.22, $73.58, $75.63, and $77.91, while support lies at $68.94, $66.53, $65.52, and $64.29.
Fundamentally, oil prices are steady due to OPEC+ delaying production increases and continuing cuts through year-end amid weak demand and oversupply concerns. Geopolitical tensions and US election uncertainty add volatility, though substantial price increases are unlikely without significant supply disruptions.
EURUSD Eyes Key Data Amid Political Shifts
Key economic events on Thursday and Friday, including Japan's BOJ Policy Rate, Canada's GDP data, and the US Core PCE Price Index and Unemployment Claims, are set to provide insights into economic health across regions. Friday's Nonfarm Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US will be closely watched for further indications of labor market conditions and manufacturing strength. The EURUSD remains in a downtrend in technical analysis, with potential support and resistance levels suggesting key price targets. Fundamentals show a strengthening US dollar, influenced by political shifts and recent JOLTS data indicating a gradually cooling labor market, fueling speculation about a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in November.
S&P 500 Rally Faces Key Economic Data Amid Signals of Potential Pullback
This week brings several high-impact economic events, with Flash PMI reports from Europe, the UK, and the US, alongside Canada's retail sales data. These reports come as the S&P 500 continues its upward momentum, recently reaching a new all-time high. The rally has been supported by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and a favorable technical setup, though some indicators signal the possibility of a short-term retracement. As global economic conditions evolve, traders will keep a close eye on these data releases and their potential market impact.
Gold Shines Amid Market Uncertainty and Geopolitical Tensions
As key economic events unfold, global markets brace for pivotal shifts. Central bank decisions and flash PMIs across major regions like Canada, Europe, the UK, and the US set the stage for economic sentiment in the near term. Gold continues to draw attention, fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and upcoming elections, with technical indicators suggesting both potential for further gains and caution for retracement. Amid this landscape, investors are keeping a close watch on gold’s performance, balancing its historic stability against the broader economic backdrop.
European Central Bank Poised for Rate Cut as Growth Slows and Inflation Eases
The remaining of the week presents a series of critical economic events and technical developments that could shape market movements. Key reports from Australia, Europe, the US, and the UK are anticipated to drive currency fluctuations, with employment data, retail sales figures, and interest rate decisions in focus. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates further amid falling inflation and slowing growth, while in the US, retail sales and unemployment claims will provide insights into consumer strength and labor market trends. Alongside these fundamental drivers, technical analysis of the EURUSD highlights sustained downward momentum, with key resistance and support levels outlining potential market directions for traders.
Weak Demand and Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Crude Oil Prices
Since reaching a high of $77.913 per barrel in early July, crude oil prices have steadily declined, reflecting a combination of market dynamics and technical pressures. The drop has been fueled by weaker demand forecasts, particularly from major global importers, and concerns over a potential oversupply in the coming months. Geopolitical tensions have added further uncertainty, with traders watching closely for any disruptions to energy supplies. While some support levels are in sight, the overall sentiment remains cautious as economic stimulus efforts in key economies struggle to gain clarity, keeping downward pressure on prices in the near term.
USDCAD Bullish Momentum Meets Key Economic Events
As key economic events unfold this Friday, including Canada's employment data and the US PPI, traders are watching closely for signals that could influence market dynamics, particularly in the USDCAD pair. With the pair showing strong upward momentum since late September, breaking key resistance levels and supported by favorable technical indicators, the outlook remains bullish.
However, with significant data releases on the horizon and potential shifts in monetary policy, traders should be mindful of both upside potential and downside risks, as market sentiment could shift rapidly.
NZDUSD Faces Mounting Bearish Pressure Amid Rate Cuts and Weakening Economy
NZDUSD entered a significant downtrend after peaking at 0.63774 on September 30, driven by technical signals and fundamental factors. The formation of a Shooting Star pattern confirmed the exhaustion of bullish momentum, leading to a decisive break below key technical levels, including the 50-period Exponential Moving Average. With bearish candlesticks and momentum indicators signaling further downside potential, traders are closely monitoring key support levels. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent rate cut to 4.75% has added further pressure as the market faces weakening domestic economic conditions and global uncertainties.
EURUSD Downtrend Amid Geopolitical Unrest and Strong US Jobs
After peaking at 1.12016 in August, the EURUSD pair entered a distribution phase within a consolidation range, encountering significant resistance and support levels. The US dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset—bolstered by geopolitical unrest, strong US jobs, and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—has strengthened it against the Euro, leading to a downtrend. Technical indicators signal sustained bearish momentum, with potential upside and downside targets identified. Additionally, fundamental factors such as the US presidential election and its potential impact on dollar policies have increased market volatility.