Research & Education

NZDUSD entered a significant downtrend after peaking at 0.63774 on September 30, driven by technical signals and fundamental factors.  The formation of a Shooting Star pattern confirmed the exhaustion of bullish momentum, leading to a decisive break below key technical levels, including the 50-period Exponential Moving Average.  With bearish candlesticks and momentum indicators signaling further downside potential, traders are closely monitoring key support levels.  Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent rate cut to 4.75% has added further pressure as the market faces weakening domestic economic conditions and global uncertainties.

After peaking at 1.12016 in August, the EURUSD pair entered a distribution phase within a consolidation range, encountering significant resistance and support levels.  The US dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset—bolstered by geopolitical unrest, strong US jobs, and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—has strengthened it against the Euro, leading to a downtrend.  Technical indicators signal sustained bearish momentum, with potential upside and downside targets identified.  Additionally, fundamental factors such as the US presidential election and its potential impact on dollar policies have increased market volatility.

This week's key economic events include several significant data releases, such as Nonfarm Employment Change and ISM Services PMI from the US, as well as Switzerland's CPI.  The GBPUSD has maintained an upward trend since April, driven by a bullish failure swing pattern.  Technical indicators like the 50-period EMA and RSI support the ongoing bullish momentum, though negative divergence with the Momentum oscillator suggests the potential for a correction.  Traders are watching key resistance and support levels.  Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is considering a quarter-point rate cut in November, while the European Central Bank may implement a rate cut in October, influenced by falling inflation and economic slowdown in the Eurozone.

Crude oil prices have been in a downward trend since July 5, with a bearish reversal pattern confirming the shift. Key technical indicators point to continued bearish pressure, as crude trades below its 50-period EMA, and both the Momentum oscillator and RSI signal weakness. On the upside, key resistance levels to watch are $72.171, $78.412, $80.261, and $84.677, while potential support areas could be found at $65.523, $63.804, $61.415, and $54.767. Market fundamentals have added more pressure, with Saudi Arabia planning to increase production and weak demand from China, driving US crude prices down by 7.4% from Tuesday's high of $72.171 to yesterday's close.

Since August 8, EURGBP has been in a sustained downtrend, following a rebound from 0.86247 and the formation of a failure swing pattern.  The inability of the price to surpass the 0.85926 peak, coupled with a subsequent break below the key support level of 0.85301, has confirmed bearish momentum.  The widening of the Bollinger Bands and price action closing below the Lower Band signals the likelihood of continued downside pressure.

The GBPJPY currency pair has been rallying since September 16, rebounding from a low of 183.711.  Strong upward momentum is indicated by five consecutive bullish candles and supportive technical indicators like the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the Momentum oscillator above 100, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50.  This bullish trend is expected to continue, especially if the pair breaks above the key level of 193.484, potentially paving the way for higher exchange rates.

This week's key economic events are dominated by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut, which could signal the onset of a broader monetary easing cycle.  This potential policy shift is expected to have significant implications for global financial markets.  In addition to the Fed's decision, pivotal data releases and central bank actions from other major economies—including the U.S., UK, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and Japan—will be closely watched.  Markets will focus on inflation reports, GDP figures, and employment data to assess the trajectory of global economic growth and monetary policy.  These developments are poised to influence market sentiment and provide critical insights into future economic conditions.